Car Insurance Premiums Will Rise 4% or More by the End of 2025, Disrupting a Trend of Stability, Insurify Projects

Even though some insurers are lowering rates, prolonged tariffs could increase premiums as much as 7% nationally by the end of the year, up from 4% without tariffs.

Matt Brannon
Written byMatt Brannon
Matt Brannon
Matt BrannonData Journalist

Matt is a data journalist at Insurify. His journalism background spans 10 years, beginning as a newspaper reporter before moving into online data journalism. While working at the Redding Record Searchlight, Matt’s writing and reporting earned multiple awards from the California News Publishers Association.

Since moving into online content, Matt has specialized in personal finance topics. His writing emphasizes data and trends, highlighting takeaways that help consumers make informed decisions. He has been cited as a personal finance expert by the Associated Press. His research has been featured in Business Insider, CNBC, and the Wall Street Journal.

Matt holds a B.S. in journalism from the University of Florida and resides in St. Petersburg, Florida. Outside of work, Matt enjoys exploring new cities, reading about history, and grumbling over his fantasy football team.

Evelyn Pimplaskar
Evelyn PimplaskarEditor-in-Chief, Director of Content
  • 10+ years in insurance and personal finance content

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Evelyn leads Insurify’s content team. She’s passionate about creating empowering content to help people transform their financial lives and make sound insurance-buying decisions.

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Chase Gardner
Data reviewed byChase Gardner
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Chase GardnerData Insights Manager
  • Data expert on auto trends and driver behavior

  • University of Chicago graduate with statistics degree

Chase spearheads analytics for Insurify’s data insights team. With his deep expertise in insurance data, Chase is often interviewed on industry trends.

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Updated

Initially, car insurance companies looked at 2025 as a year to keep insurance rates stable, or even cut them, after years of premium increases. In the first half of the year, rates were steady nationally and decreased in 27 states.

Tariffs and inflation could derail that trend. Some insurers may have already accounted for tariffs when setting rates, while others may have to raise rates if tariffs increase the cost of claims.

Insurify projects the national average cost of full-coverage car insurance will increase 4% by year’s end ($2,402) and up to 7% if prolonged tariffs lead to significant insurer losses ($2,472).

Maryland, the most expensive state for car insurance, could see its average annual cost for full coverage approach $4,400 with further tariff-driven rate increases.

The past few years have been a roller coaster for auto insurers and drivers. Following a post-pandemic surge in driving, insurers raised rates substantially to keep up with increased risks — more accidents and more expensive auto parts due to inflation. From June 2022 to June 2024, the average annual cost of insurance in the U.S. rose by more than 40% — upward of $700.

Trends vary by insurer and by state, but by mid-2024, national rates started to level off as many insurers had adequately aligned the premiums they charged with the financial risk they faced. In 2025, insurers are now in a much more stable position, with some continuing to lower rates. Others are still adjusting pricing to find the right balance.

Since then, the U.S. has imposed several rounds of tariffs that raise the cost of auto parts, thus increasing the cost of repair claims for insurers. Inflation, which was falling early in the year, has ticked up since April.[1] For insurers, that means the same volume of claims now costs more money to cover. Car insurance companies could raise premiums to align their rates with this additional financial risk.

Projection: The Annual Cost of Car Insurance by the End of 2025

State
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Projected Annual Cost of Insurance Without Tariffs, End of Year 2025
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Projected Annual Cost of Insurance With Tariffs, End of Year 2025
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Annual Cost of Car Insurance, June 2025
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Alabama$1,767$1,819$1,722
Arkansas$2,221$2,283$2,094
Arizona$1,995$2,052$1,918
California$2,635$2,711$2,525
Colorado$2,880$2,964$2,801
Connecticut$2,543$2,617$2,442
District of Columbia$3,848$3,961$3,780
Delaware$3,465$3,566$3,366
Florida$3,107$3,194$2,912
Georgia$3,133$3,224$3,025
Hawaii$1,634$1,683$1,631
Iowa$1,548$1,593$1,485
Idaho$1,442$1,484$1,400
Illinois$2,020$2,078$1,950
Indiana$1,688$1,737$1,641
Kansas$1,933$1,989$1,873
Kentucky$2,240$2,305$2,156
Louisiana$2,795$2,876$2,680
Massachusetts$1,751$1,801$1,696
Maryland$4,235$4,358$4,093
Maine$1,374$1,415$1,370
Michigan$3,186$3,280$3,131
Minnesota$2,455$2,526$2,345
Missouri$2,295$2,361$2,217
Mississippi$2,385$2,455$2,306
Montana$1,962$2,020$1,922
North Carolina$1,301$1,339$1,250
North Dakota$1,273$1,310$1,237
Nebraska$1,674$1,723$1,611
New Hampshire$1,009$1,038$993
New Jersey$2,710$2,789$2,629
New Mexico$1,860$1,914$1,809
Nevada$3,275$3,369$3,159
New York$3,935$4,047$3,724
Ohio$1,507$1,551$1,472
Oklahoma$2,180$2,244$2,136
Oregon$1,839$1,893$1,784
Pennsylvania$2,160$2,223$2,082
Rhode Island$3,330$3,430$3,331
South Carolina$3,362$3,458$3,202
South Dakota$1,908$1,964$1,861
Tennessee$1,697$1,746$1,635
Texas$2,790$2,870$2,673
Utah$1,950$2,006$1,865
Virginia$2,447$2,519$2,396
Vermont$1,646$1,695$1,638
Washington$2,094$2,155$2,015
Wisconsin$1,695$1,744$1,640
West Virginia$1,928$1,985$1,883
Wyoming$1,244$1,279$1,172

Source: *Insurify analysis of car insurance data and tariffs. Alaska is excluded due to low quote volume.

Recently, however, there’s been momentum toward easing tariff policies. By August 1, the U.S. announced trade deals that decreased tariffs on imports of automobiles and auto parts from Japan, South Korea, and the European Union from 25% to 15%.

Extreme weather is also fueling high insurance premiums. Los Angeles County fires in January destroyed as many as 6,300 vehicles, according to estimates.[2] In 2024, Florida hurricanes led to more than 100,000 auto insurance claims. Hail, prevalent in the Midwest, accounts for about 12% of comprehensive car insurance claims.[3]

There are scenarios where drivers dodge substantial premium increases. Tariffs could prove less burdensome than expected, claim volume could fall, and regulators could push back on rate increases, resulting in more modest pricing. Some insurers are already easing the pedal on rate hikes and lowering their premiums. Rates could also rise higher than expected if the U.S. implements new tariffs.

To give drivers an idea of what to expect, Insurify data scientists modeled how insurance costs could rise in each state by the end of 2025, using proprietary quote data, tariff projections, and insurance industry losses.

Key findings

  • Insurify projects that even though some insurers are lowering rates, on average, full-coverage car insurance premiums will increase 4% ($2,402) to 7% ($2,472) by the end of 2025.

  • By the end of 2025, full-coverage car insurance rates could rise 12% or more in Rhode Island, Michigan, Maine, Washington, D.C., and Delaware. If insurers need to impose tariff-related price increases, those states will see rates climb 15% or more.

  • Most states saw premiums fall in the first half of 2025. The average full-coverage car insurance premium nationwide declined 1% over the past 12 months, with an annual cost of $2,310 as of June.

  • Maryland has the most expensive average car insurance premiums in the U.S., at $4,093 per year, up 20% from summer 2024. New Hampshire has the cheapest premiums on average, at $993.

  • Insurify projects that four states will see prices remain flat or decline by the end of 2025: Vermont, Maine, Hawaii, and Rhode Island, unless tariffs lead to additional rate hikes.

  • After Florida’s rates dropped 8% in the first half of the year, Insurify projects the state could reverse course, leaving Floridians to face the biggest cost increase between now and the end of the year, at 7%. That would push the state’s average from $2,912 to $3,107, assuming no additional tariff-related increases.

In most states, car insurance rates declined in the first half of 2025 — but inflation and other factors could end that trend

In the first six months of 2025, the average cost of car insurance declined in 27 states, remained flat in three states, and increased in 19 states and Washington, D.C., according to Insurify data.

In an optimistic sign for drivers, insurers secured 646 rate cuts in the first half of the year, on track to outpace 2024’s total.[4] But they still secured more increases than decreases, which is consistent with Insurify’s projections of an average increase by year’s end. The size of that increase will depend in part on the extent to which tariffs influence premiums.

Without tariffs affecting rates further, Insurify analysis suggests rates would rise about 4% by the end of 2025, based on systemic factors, like inflation and how much money insurers are paying out in claims. But if insurers still need to account for tariffs in rate setting, Insurify projects that the increase could rise to 7% — as insurers covering repair claims pay more to replace foreign-sourced car parts.

The White House has imposed 25% tariffs on foreign automobiles and auto parts, with certain exemptions, including carve-outs for vehicle content from Canada and Mexico.[5] In late July and early August, the administration announced agreements with Japanese, South Korean, and EU officials to lower the tariff rate on cars and car parts sent to the U.S. from 25% to 15%. Japan is the fourth-largest exporter of auto parts to the U.S., South Korea is the fifth, and Germany is the sixth. 

If tariff policies continue to soften, insurers will have one less cost threatening their bottom lines, potentially reducing the likelihood of rate hikes.

Estimating if and when tariffs could start to raise car insurance rates is complicated. Some insurers had already adjusted their premiums to account for the higher costs and are now planning to lower them, despite tariff-related costs. Meanwhile, experts say it could take months for tariff costs to flow to individual policies.

Insurance is heavily regulated, and insurers typically must demonstrate that tariffs have consistently driven up their costs before state regulators allow them to raise rates in response.

Insurers, inherently risk-sensitive, are bracing for a hit. In an earnings call, Allstate CEO Tom Wilson said, “If we need to raise prices, we will raise prices just like we did in the pandemic because with our margins, we don’t have a lot of room to absorb [the cost].”[6]

In a first-quarter report, Progressive said tariffs and other retaliatory actions could result in “higher-than-currently-anticipated rate increases throughout 2025 and 2026.”[7] Since then, however, Progressive reported a healthy second quarter, supported by improved margins, which could keep premiums stable.

Car insurance costs by state

Insurify projects that prolonged tariffs could raise the average annual cost of full-coverage car insurance to $2,472 by year’s end. Without a tariff-related increase, that cost would be $70 lower on average, coming in at $2,402. If insurers generally avoid raising rates due to tariffs, four states could see premiums remain flat or decline over the next six months: Vermont, Maine, Hawaii, and Rhode Island.

State
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Current Average Annual Cost (June 2025)
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Change in Average Cost, First Half of 2025
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Projected Increase, Second Half of 2025, Without Tariffs
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Projected Annual Cost Without Tariffs at End of 2025, Year-Over-Year % Increase
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Projected Annual Cost With Tariffs at End of 2025, Year-Over-Year % Increase
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United States$2,3100%4%$2,402 (+4%)$2,472 (+7%)
Alabama$1,7221%3%$1,767 (+4%)$1,819 (+7%)
Arizona$1,918-3%4%$1,995 (+1%)$2,052 (+4%)
Arkansas$2,094-14%6%$2,221 (-8%)$2,283 (-5%)
California$2,525-2%4%$2,635 (+2%)$2,711 (+5%)
Colorado$2,8010%3%$2,880 (+2%)$2,964 (+5%)
Connecticut$2,4420%4%$2,543 (+4%)$2,617 (+7%)
Delaware$3,3669%3%$3,465 (+12%)$3,566 (+15%)
Florida$2,912-8%7%$3,107 (-1%)$3,194 (+2%)
Georgia$3,0257%4%$3,133 (+11%)$3,224 (+14%)
Hawaii$1,6319%0%$1,634 (+9%)$1,683 (+12%)
Idaho$1,400-6%3%$1,442 (-3%)$1,484 (+0%)
Illinois$1,950-1%4%$2,020 (+3%)$2,078 (+6%)
Indiana$1,641-1%3%$1,688 (+2%)$1,737 (+5%)
Iowa$1,485-6%4%$1,548 (-2%)$1,593 (+1%)
Kansas$1,873-3%3%$1,933 (+0%)$1,989 (+3%)
Kentucky$2,156-1%4%$2,240 (+3%)$2,305 (+6%)
Louisiana$2,680-5%4%$2,795 (-1%)$2,876 (+2%)
Maine$1,37013%0%$1,374 (+13%)$1,415 (+16%)
Maryland$4,0931%3%$4,235 (+4%)$4,358 (+7%)
Massachusetts$1,696-6%3%$1,751 (-3%)$1,801 (+0%)
Michigan$3,13114%2%$3,186 (+16%)$3,280 (+19%)
Minnesota$2,345-7%5%$2,455 (-2%)$2,526 (+1%)
Mississippi$2,3061%3%$2,385 (+5%)$2,455 (+8%)
Missouri$2,2171%4%$2,295 (+4%)$2,361 (+7%)
Montana$1,9223%2%$1,962 (+5%)$2,020 (+8%)
Nebraska$1,611-3%4%$1,674 (+1%)$1,723 (+4%)
Nevada$3,1596%4%$3,275 (+10%)$3,369 (+13%)
New Hampshire$9930%2%$1,009 (+1%)$1,038 (+4%)
New Jersey$2,6296%3%$2,710 (+9%)$2,789 (+12%)
New Mexico$1,809-5%3%$1,860 (-2%)$1,914 (+1%)
New York$3,724-2%6%$3,935 (+4%)$4,047 (+7%)
North Carolina$1,250-1%4%$1,301 (+3%)$1,339 (+6%)
North Dakota$1,237-2%3%$1,273 (+1%)$1,310 (+4%)
Ohio$1,4721%2%$1,507 (+4%)$1,551 (+7%)
Oklahoma$2,1365%2%$2,180 (+7%)$2,244 (+10%)
Oregon$1,784-1%3%$1,839 (+2%)$1,893 (+5%)
Pennsylvania$2,082-2%4%$2,160 (+2%)$2,223 (+5%)
Rhode Island$3,33117%0%$3,330 (+17%)$3,430 (+20%)
South Carolina$3,202-6%5%$3,362 (-1%)$3,458 (+2%)
South Dakota$1,8616%3%$1,908 (+8%)$1,964 (+11%)
Tennessee$1,635-2%4%$1,697 (+2%)$1,746 (+5%)
Texas$2,673-1%4%$2,790 (+3%)$2,870 (+6%)
Utah$1,865-8%5%$1,950 (-4%)$2,006 (-1%)
Vermont$1,6385%0%$1,646 (+5%)$1,695 (+8%)
Virginia$2,3965%2%$2,447 (+7%)$2,519 (+10%)
Washington$2,0151%4%$2,094 (+5%)$2,155 (+8%)
Washington, D.C.$3,78011%2%$3,848 (+13%)$3,961 (+16%)
West Virginia$1,883-1%2%$1,928 (+1%)$1,985 (+4%)
Wisconsin$1,640-2%3%$1,695 (+1%)$1,744 (+4%)
Wyoming$1,172-20%6%$1,244 (-14%)$1,279 (-11%)
*Due to rounding, the first-half percentage increase and the second-half projected increase may not equal the projected full year-over-year percentage increase in certain states.

The 10 most expensive states for car insurance in 2025

Although rates were largely flat in the first half of the year, Insurify forecasts that inflation and insurer losses could cause average rates to rise by year’s end in all but four states. Tariffs add another wrinkle, adding costs for insurers that could prompt them to lift premiums.

Many drivers already felt squeezed by high prices following two years of rapid rate hikes. An Insurify survey from May found that 38% of Americans consider car insurance unaffordable. Looking ahead, Northeastern states like Maryland and New York are likely to start 2026 with the highest car insurance rates in the country.

1. Maryland

  • Year-end annual cost projection, without tariffs: $4,235 (+4% year-over-year)

  • Year-end annual cost projection, with tariffs: $4,358 (+7% year-over-year)

  • Average annual cost (June 2025): $4,093

  • Second half of 2025 projected cost increase: 3% without tariffs

In mid-2024, Maryland surpassed New York as the most expensive state for car insurance premiums. In the past 12 months, Maryland’s premiums have jumped 20% while the U.S. average has declined by 1%. Much of that increase took place in late 2024 after the state began requiring insurers to provide enhanced underinsured motorist coverage for new policies.[8]

2. New York

  • Year-end annual cost projection, without tariffs: $3,935 (+4% year-over-year)

  • Year-end annual cost projection, with tariffs: $4,047 (+7% year-over-year)

  • Average annual cost (June 2025): $3,724

  • Second half of 2025 projected cost increase: 6% without tariffs

Car insurance rates rose rapidly in New York in the second half of 2024, before slowing in early 2025. The average cost peaked at $3,804 in December 2024, with rates dropping by 2% since. New York is a no-fault insurance state, meaning drivers have to pay for personal injury protection on top of liability coverage. No-fault states are also more susceptible to staged accidents and other forms of insurance fraud, which increases insurer losses and drives up premiums.

3. Washington, D.C.

  • Year-end annual cost projection, without tariffs: $3,848 (+13% year-over-year)

  • Year-end annual cost projection, with tariffs: $3,961 (+16% year-over-year)

  • Average annual cost (June 2025): $3,780

  • Second half of 2025 projected cost increase: 2% without tariffs

Car insurance rates in D.C. have soared 27% over the past 12 months, more than any state over that period. The average cost of car insurance in D.C. last summer was $2,984 per year. Since then, it’s gone up by about $800, and Insurify expects the average to reach about $4,000 by year’s end.

Frequent vehicle thefts tend to raise car insurance premiums, and the capital has higher vehicle theft rates than any state. In D.C., the vehicle theft rate was 842.4 per 100,000 people in 2024 — nearly double the next entry on the list.[9]

In the first half of 2025, D.C. rates climbed 11%. Only three states saw larger increases. Insurify projects an additional 2% increase by year’s end.

4. Delaware

  • Year-end annual cost projection, without tariffs: $3,465 (+12% year-over-year)

  • Year-end annual cost projection, with tariffs: $3,566 (+15% year-over-year)

  • Average annual cost (June 2025): $3,366

  • Second half of 2025 projected cost increase: 3% without tariffs

Delaware’s car insurance costs rose 9% in the first six months of 2025. Without tariffs, Insurify projects those costs would level off later in the year, rising about 3% from now until December. But tariffs could double that increase to 6%, raising the average annual cost an additional $101.

Delaware’s rates are already higher than the national average. It has one of the five highest insurer loss ratios in the country.[10] The state doesn’t limit the amount of pain and suffering damages a plaintiff can seek in an accident case, which can increase insurer losses and influence rates.[11]

5. South Carolina

  • Year-end annual cost projection, without tariffs: $3,362 (-1% year-over-year)

  • Year-end annual cost projection, with tariffs: $3,458 (+2% year-over-year)

  • Average annual cost (June 2025): $3,202

  • Second half of 2025 projected cost increase: 5% without tariffs

South Carolina is one of the most expensive states for drivers because insurers there absorb above-average losses. The state has the third-highest rate of vehicle fatalities per mile driven.[12] Heightened hurricane and flood risks also cause insurers to pay out additional claims, which they may try to recover through higher premiums.

The average cost of car insurance in South Carolina peaked at nearly $3,500 in late 2024, but it has come down to $3,202 since then. That trend may reverse in the second half of the year if tariff-related price increases take hold.

6. Rhode Island

  • Year-end annual cost projection, without tariffs: $3,330 (+17% year-over-year)

  • Year-end annual cost projection, with tariffs: $3,430 (+20% year-over-year)

  • Average annual cost (June 2025): $3,331

  • Second half of 2025 projected cost increase: 0% without tariffs

Auto insurance rates in Rhode Island have been noticeably volatile lately. The average cost of car insurance rose 17% in the first half of 2025 — the largest increase of any state — from $2,839 to $3,331. That followed a 37% increase in fatal crashes from 2022 to 2023.[13]

Insurify expects rates to stay flat in the second half of the year, unless tariffs lead insurers to request approval from regulators for further premium increases.

7. Nevada

  • Year-end annual cost projection, without tariffs: $3,275 (+10% year-over-year)

  • Year-end annual cost projection, with tariffs: $3,369 (+13% year-over-year)

  • Average annual cost (June 2025): $3,159

  • Second half of 2025 projected cost increase: 4% without tariffs

Nevada saw average car insurance rates rise 6% in the first half of 2025 and is likely to see further cost increases as the year continues. Nevada has the fourth-highest loss ratio of any state, as auto insurers pay out about $72 in claims for every $100 they make in premiums. A healthy loss ratio typically falls between $40 and $60 in claims for every $100 made in premiums. Vehicle theft claims can increase insurance costs, and Nevada ranks fifth nationwide with 394 thefts per 100,000 people.[9]

8. Michigan

  • Year-end annual cost projection, without tariffs: $3,186 (+16% year-over-year)

  • Year-end annual cost projection, with tariffs: $3,280 (+19% year-over-year)

  • Average annual cost (June 2025): $3,131

  • Second half of 2025 projected cost increase: 2% without tariffs

The average annual cost of car insurance in Michigan rose 14% in the first half of 2025 — the second-biggest jump of any state — from $2,742 to $3,131. Michigan is a no-fault state, meaning drivers carry additional protection to pay for their own medical expenses in the event of a collision, which often leads to higher insurance rates. Additionally, Michigan auto insurers have the eighth-highest loss ratio of any state, paying out about $70 in claims for every $100 they make in premiums.

9. Georgia

  • Year-end annual cost projection, without tariffs: $3,133 (+11% year-over-year)

  • Year-end annual cost projection, with tariffs: $3,224 (+14% year-over-year)

  • Average annual cost (June 2025): $3,025

  • Second half of 2025 projected cost increase: 4% without tariffs

Georgia car insurance costs exceed the national average by about $700 per year. The state has one of the highest estimated rates of uninsured motorists, which can increase risk and raise premiums for drivers with coverage.[14] Insurance rates in the state rose 8% in the first half of 2025, and Insurify projects a 4% increase for the second half of the year. Though that projection could go up to 7% depending on how insurers deal with tariffs.

10. Florida

  • Year-end annual cost projection, without tariffs: $3,107 (-1% year-over-year)

  • Year-end annual cost projection, with tariffs: $3,194 (+2% year-over-year)

  • Average annual cost (June 2025): $2,912

  • Second half of 2025 projected cost increase: 7% without tariffs

Florida car insurance rates peaked in August 2024 at $3,250 on average. But premiums have retreated by more than $300 since then. Despite prices cooling down, Insurify projects rates will go up in the second half of 2025. Florida is the most expensive state for auto insurers, with the nation’s highest loss ratio. Insurers pay out about $74.50 in claims for every $100 they make in premiums.

Some Florida drivers have noticed higher premiums, prompting them to lower their coverage to save on costs.

“As a result of high insurance rates in Florida, we’re seeing drivers who used to carry more robust coverage with high limits starting to reduce their coverage, switching to cheaper policies with lower limits,” said Mallory Mooney, director of sales and service at Insurify.

The 10 cheapest states for car insurance in 2025

Certain states with less volatile insurance markets have maintained relatively low rates. As a whole, annual costs in the 10 cheapest states for car insurance are about $1,000 below the national average.

1. New Hampshire

  • Year-end annual cost projection, without tariffs: $1,009 (+1% year-over-year)

  • Year-end annual cost projection, with tariffs: $1,038 (+4% year-over-year)

  • Average annual cost (June 2025): $993

  • Second half of 2025 projected cost increase: 2% without tariffs

New Hampshire is the only state where the average annual cost of car insurance today is below $1,000. That’s four times cheaper than Maryland, which has average rates over $4,000. New Hampshire is also the only state in the country that doesn’t require auto insurance, although it does require drivers to demonstrate financial responsibility.

After Vermont, New Hampshire is the least expensive state for auto insurers to cover. They spend about $60 in claims for every $100 they make in premiums.

Insurify expects the average cost of car insurance to increase 2% in New Hampshire by year’s end, one of the lowest increases nationwide. If prolonged tariffs increase the cost of claims, however, Insurify would project a 5% increase.

2. Wyoming

  • Year-end annual cost projection, without tariffs: $1,244 (-14% year-over-year)

  • Year-end annual cost projection, with tariffs: $1,279 (-11% year-over-year)

  • Average annual cost (June 2025): $1,172

  • Second half of 2025 projected cost increase: 6% without tariffs

Wyoming is the second-cheapest state for full-coverage car insurance. States with low population density often have lower car insurance rates since fewer vehicles are on the road at any given time.

Additionally, Wyoming doesn’t require drivers to carry uninsured motorist or personal injury protection coverage, which can add financial exposure for drivers but contribute to lower rates. The average cost of car insurance has declined 20% since the start of 2025, but Insurify projects prices will increase again later in the year.

3. North Dakota

  • Year-end annual cost projection, without tariffs: $1,273 (+1% year-over-year)

  • Year-end annual cost projection, with tariffs: $1,310 (+4% year-over-year)

  • Average annual cost (June 2025): $1,237

  • Second half of 2025 projected cost increase: 3% without tariffs

Car insurance rates in North Dakota have come down 14% since last summer, when the average annual price for full coverage was $1,439. Rural states like North Dakota tend to have lower rates, given that they have fewer high-traffic areas and thus fewer opportunities for a collision. North Dakota has the 11th-lowest loss ratio for auto insurance, making it less expensive for insurers to operate in the state.

4. North Carolina

  • Year-end annual cost projection, without tariffs: $1,301 (+3% year-over-year)

  • Year-end annual cost projection, with tariffs: $1,339 (+6% year-over-year)

  • Average annual cost (June 2025): $1,250

  • Second half of 2025 projected cost increase: 4% without tariffs

North Carolina remains one of the most affordable states for car insurance, with costs declining an additional 12% over the past 12 months. North Carolina is one of the hardest states for insurers to raise rates in, as state regulators have been known to negotiate down proposals for rate increases.[15]

5. Maine

  • Year-end annual cost projection, without tariffs: $1,374 (+13% year-over-year)

  • Year-end annual cost projection, with tariffs: $1,415 (+16% year-over-year)

  • Average annual cost (June 2025): $1,370

  • Second half of 2025 projected cost increase: 0% without tariffs

Maine has some of the lowest car insurance rates nationwide, but prices have recently trended upward. The average cost of full coverage is up 13% since the start of the year — the third-biggest leap of any state. But premiums in Maine are still relatively affordable. Drivers benefit from the fact that fatal crashes are relatively infrequent in Maine. In 2023, Maine averaged 0.91 deaths per 100 million miles driven — 38% below the national average (1.26 per 100 million miles driven).[12]

Given Maine’s low risk profile for insurers, Insurify projects that the state will see no change in rates by year’s end. If insurers struggle to adjust to tariffs, however, Insurify would instead project a 3% increase by December.

6. Idaho

  • Year-end annual cost projection, without tariffs: $1,442 (-3% year-over-year)

  • Year-end annual cost projection, with tariffs: $1,484 (+0% year-over-year)

  • Average annual cost (June 2025): $1,400

  • Second half of 2025 projected cost increase: 3% without tariffs

Car insurance rates in Idaho have leveled off in recent months, declining 6% since the start of 2025. As of June, the typical cost of full coverage is $910 below the national average. Idaho has the fifth-lowest auto insurance loss ratio of any state, meaning insurance companies don’t feel as much financial pressure to raise rates compared to the average state. It also has the third-lowest rate of uninsured motorists, as of 2022 estimates.[14]

7. Ohio

  • Year-end annual cost projection, without tariffs: $1,507 (+4% year-over-year)

  • Year-end annual cost projection, with tariffs: $1,551 (+7% year-over-year)

  • Average annual cost (June 2025): $1,472

  • Second half of 2025 projected cost increase: 2% without tariffs

In the past 12 months, Ohio has seen its average cost of car insurance decline by 4%, while neighboring states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Indiana have seen rates rise. Ohio drivers pay less up front for insurance than drivers in other states, in part because the state doesn’t require uninsured motorist coverage or personal injury protection.

Additionally, Ohio has the ninth-lowest auto insurance loss ratio, meaning insurance companies can generally remain financially stable without imposing large rate hikes.

8. Iowa

  • Year-end annual cost projection, without tariffs: $1,548 (-2% year-over-year)

  • Year-end annual cost projection, with tariffs: $1,593 (+1% year-over-year)

  • Average annual cost (June 2025): $1,485

  • Second half of 2025 projected cost increase: 4% without tariffs

Iowa drivers have seen their average insurance rates fall 18% over the past 12 months, from $1,821 to $1,485. Since then, Iowa has gone from the 17th-cheapest state to the eighth-cheapest state for full-coverage car insurance. Despite that trend, Insurify projects rates will increase in the second half of the year by about 4%.

The state is prone to severe weather, including hail and flooding, which can damage vehicles and increase losses for insurers, encouraging them to raise premiums in response.

9. Hawaii

  • Year-end annual cost projection, without tariffs: $1,634 (+9% year-over-year)

  • Year-end annual cost projection, with tariffs: $1,683 (+12% year-over-year)

  • Average annual cost (June 2025): $1,631

  • Second half of 2025 projected cost increase: 0% without tariffs

Hawaii’s rates jumped 13% since summer 2024, but the state remains one of the more affordable for car insurance. From 2019 through 2023, Hawaii had the third-lowest loss ratio for auto insurers, which indicates a relatively stable market. The state also has a below-average rate of fatal crashes. Additionally, Hawaii insurance officials strictly regulate rate increases, according to a 2024 analysis from R Street, which can keep costs on the lower end for drivers.

Insurify projects average Hawaii rates will stay where they are for the rest of the year, as long as insurers are able to adapt to tariffs without raising premiums. It’s one of four states projected to see a 0% increase.

10. Vermont

  • Year-end annual cost projection, without tariffs: $1,646 (+5% year-over-year)

  • Year-end annual cost projection, with tariffs: $1,695 (+8% year-over-year)

  • Average annual cost (June 2025): $1,638

  • Second half of 2025 projected cost increase: 0% without tariffs

The average cost of car insurance in Vermont has risen 16% in the past 12 months, but drivers there still pay about $700 below the national average for full coverage. Auto insurers in Vermont pay about $59 in claims for every $100 they make in premiums — the lowest loss ratio nationwide. Vermont also has the 10th-lowest rate of fatal vehicle crashes per mile driven.[12]

States where car insurance prices are increasing the fastest in the second half of 2025

Some states that saw rates come down in the first half of 2025 are likely to see substantial increases by the end of the year. Florida, Wyoming, and Arkansas had average costs dip by 8% or more in the first six months of the year, but they could see significant increases by December as insurers adjust pricing.

1. Florida

  • Second half of 2025 projected cost increase: 7% without tariffs

  • Year-end annual cost projection, without tariffs: $3,107 (-1% year-over-year)

  • Year-end annual cost projection, with tariffs: $3,194 (+2% year-over-year)

  • Average annual cost (June 2025): $2,912

The average annual cost of insurance in Florida has trended down recently, dropping 10% since June 2024. But Insurify projects Florida will undergo the highest average rate increase of any state in the second half of 2025.

Severe weather has long plagued the state’s home insurance market, and storm damage also influences auto insurer losses. Drivers filed more than 100,000 auto insurance claims following two major 2024 hurricanes, Milton and Helene.[16]

“Florida continues to see weather-related events on the rise, and we are about to go into another hurricane season,” said Daniel Lucas, carrier relations manager at Insurify. “Southern Florida is known for its high claims costs and poor loss ratios. The Miami Dade area is one of the most challenging areas in the nation to write risk.”

2. Wyoming

  • Second half of 2025 projected cost increase: 6% without tariffs

  • Year-end annual cost projection, without tariffs: $1,244 (-14% year-over-year)

  • Year-end annual cost projection, with tariffs: $1,279 (-11% year-over-year)

  • Average annual cost (June 2025): $1,172

Wyoming’s car insurance rates have been declining for the past year. The average rate has fallen about 20% since December, the most of any state. But premiums in Wyoming are likely to rise 6% in the second half of 2025, and up to 9% depending on insurers’ reactions to tariffs.

Inflation explains some of the projected increase, but weather also plays a part in auto insurance pricing. In August 2024, a supercell storm near Devil’s Tower caused extensive damage to vehicles and buildings.[17] In January 2025, severe winds blew over at least nine semitrucks across the state.[18]

3. Arkansas

  • Second half of 2025 projected cost increase: 6% without tariffs

  • Year-end annual cost projection, without tariffs: $2,221 (-8% year-over-year)

  • Year-end annual cost projection, with tariffs: $2,283 (-5% year-over-year)

  • Average annual cost (June 2025): $2,094

Insurify projects Arkansas car insurance premiums will rise 6% in the second half of 2025, or about $127 on average. Tariffs could raise that projection to 9%.

The state experiences severe weather, which can increase insurer losses and, consequently, car insurance premiums. In 2024, the state saw 186 hail events and 47 tornadoes, the most tornadoes in a year since 2011.[19]

Although premiums are likely to rise, they had recently dropped, so the overall cost increase won’t be as burdensome for drivers. Car insurance rates in Arkansas have fallen 14% since the start of the year, from $2,430 in December to $2,094 in June.

4. New York

  • Second half of 2025 projected cost increase: 6% without tariffs

  • Year-end annual cost projection, without tariffs: $3,935 (+4% year-over-year)

  • Year-end annual cost projection, with tariffs: $4,047 (+7% year-over-year)

  • Average annual cost (June 2025): $3,724

New York is likely to see insurance rates rise 6% by year’s end, and up to 9% if insurers adjust premiums to address tariffs. Severe weather, which increases claims, is one factor contributing to higher cost projections. In July, flash floods submerged roads and vehicles in the New York City area. Central Park saw more than 2.6 inches of rain in one hour, the second-highest figure in the city’s history.[20]

5. South Carolina

  • Second half of 2025 projected cost increase: 5% without tariffs

  • Year-end annual cost projection, without tariffs: $3,362 (-1% year-over-year)

  • Year-end annual cost projection, with tariffs: $3,458 (+2% year-over-year)

  • Average annual cost (June 2025): $3,202

Insurify projects that costs in South Carolina could jump 5%, or $160, by year’s end. Insurers received more than 15,300 auto insurance claims following Hurricane Helene in September 2024, paying out about $93 million.[21] Tariffs could add a further increase, causing rates to rise an average of 8% rather than 5%.

6. Minnesota

  • Second half of 2025 projected cost increase: 5% without tariffs

  • Year-end annual cost projection, without tariffs: $2,455 (-2% year-over-year)

  • Year-end annual cost projection, with tariffs: $2,526 (+1% year-over-year)

  • Average annual cost (June 2025): $2,345

Minnesota car insurance rates rose a staggering 58% in 2024, following a year in which meteorologists reported 421 hail events in the state.[19] Insurers somewhat backed off from that pricing in the first half of 2025, with the average rate declining 7% from the end of 2024 to June. But extreme weather risks, along with inflation, could cause rates to rise 5% in the second half of the year.

7. Utah

  • Second half of 2025 projected cost increase: 5% without tariffs

  • Year-end annual cost projection, without tariffs: $1,950 (-4% year-over-year)

  • Year-end annual cost projection, with tariffs: $2,006 (-1% year-over-year)

  • Average annual cost (June 2025): $1,865

Utah car insurance rates have been dropping since late 2024, falling 8% from December to June. Insurify projects that factors like inflation and insurer losses will cause rates to increase about 5% by year’s end, or up to 8% depending on tariffs.

8. Texas

  • Second half of 2025 projected cost increase: 4% without tariffs

  • Year-end annual cost projection, without tariffs: $2,790 (+3% year-over-year)

  • Year-end annual cost projection, with tariffs: $2,870 (+6% year-over-year)

  • Average annual cost (June 2025): $2,673

Texas has managed to keep rates steady over the past few months, with premiums sliding 1% since the end of 2024. But the second half of 2025 could throw a wrench in that trend, in part due to hail and floods. Catastrophic flooding in July caused more than 100 deaths, sweeping away homes and vehicles.[22]

The state has seen a 93% increase in hail events in the past three years, which can lead to expensive car roof repairs.[23] Texas also has the second-highest odds of any state of facing a major hurricane this season.

9. California

  • Second half of 2025 projected cost increase: 4% without tariffs

  • Year-end annual cost projection, without tariffs: $2,635 (+2% year-over-year)

  • Year-end annual cost projection, with tariffs: $2,711 (+5% year-over-year)

  • Average annual cost (June 2025): $2,525

Car insurance rates in California remained relatively flat in the first half of 2025, but Insurify projects costs could rise 4% without tariffs and up to 7% with tariffs in the second half of the year. Although wildfire risk primarily affects the state’s home insurance market, a wave of auto insurance claims from the January 2025 fires in Los Angeles County is likely to result in higher rates.

By February, car insurance companies had already paid out $73 million in claims in response to those fires.[24]

10. Louisiana

  • Second half of 2025 projected cost increase: 4% without tariffs

  • Year-end annual cost projection, without tariffs: $2,795 (-1% year-over-year)

  • Year-end annual cost projection, with tariffs: $2,876 (+2% year-over-year)

  • Average annual cost (June 2025): $2,680

The average cost of car insurance in Louisiana fell 5%, or $140, in the first six months of 2025. That trend could flip in the second half of the year. Louisiana is one of the states most vulnerable to hurricanes, which bring storm surge and flooded cars. Hurricane Francine in 2024 caused an estimated $1.3 billion in damage to homes, vehicles, and businesses.[25]

Tips: How drivers can save money on car insurance premiums

Although 2025 could end up as a volatile year for the insurance industry, drivers can still take steps to keep their car insurance premiums affordable. Drivers should keep in mind that maintaining a safe driving record is a key factor when setting insurance rates.

At least twice each year, drivers should review their policies to ensure they have adequate coverage. People living in flood-prone areas, for example, may want to carry comprehensive coverage in addition to liability coverage. Once they know what they need out of their coverage, drivers can use insurance-comparison websites to get quotes from various insurance companies.

Drivers who want to save on rates without changing insurers can consider raising their deductibles. Insurers will lower premiums for drivers who increase their deductibles because, by doing so, drivers accept more of the risk burden since they’re offering to pay more of the up-front cost in the event of a claim.

Beyond that, insurers often offer discounts for paying in full at renewal, bundling policies, using paperless communications, or enrolling in telematics programs that track driving behavior.

Methodology

Insurify’s data scientists examined more than 97 million rates in its proprietary database, quoted via integrations with partnering insurance companies. Driver applications originate from all 50 states and Washington, D.C., and include information on the exact coverage specifications of each driver’s quoted policies. Insurify excluded Alaska data due to lower quoting volume.

The premiums in this report reflect the median insurance cost for drivers between the ages of 20 and 70 with clean driving records and average or better credit, unless otherwise noted. Yearly prices in this report are two-year rolling medians to manage extreme market volatility over the past few years.

Full-coverage premiums correspond to policies with bodily injury limits between state-minimum requirements and $50,000 per person, $100,000 per accident; property damage coverage between $10,000 and $50,000; and comprehensive and collision coverage with deductibles of $1,000.

To project how much the average driver will pay for full-coverage insurance by the end of 2025, Insurify data scientists analyzed insurance loss ratios by state in 2024. They then used this information to project rate-change magnitude in every state through the end of the year.

Insurance projections in this report include estimated tariff impacts when noted. Tariff analysis took into account broad 25% automobile and auto parts tariffs, including lower tariff rates for nations with specific trade agreements, such as Mexico, Canada, the United Kingdom, European Union nations, Japan, and South Korea. Insurify’s data scientists then calculated how these tariffs would affect car insurance rates by factoring in the proportion of average vehicle content that comes from those countries, based on auto parts import figures. 

From there, Insurify analyzed the share of typical vehicle repair costs represented by parts and the proportion of a standard full-coverage car insurance policy that covers damages to one’s own or another’s vehicle. Insurify calculated the tariffs’ effects on auto insurance prices on a national level and then equally distributed them across states.

To download auto insurance data, visit Insurify’s data center.

For media inquiries or questions about our study, please contact the author here.

Sources

  1. Trading Economics. "United States Inflation Rate."
  2. Carfax. "CARFAX: Up to 6,300 Vehicles Destroyed in California Wildfires."
  3. CCC Intelligent Solutions. "Crash Course Q2 2024: Highlights the Growing Impact of Severe Weather Events on Auto Insurance and Collision Repair Industries."
  4. P&C Specialist. "Carriers Keep Foot on the Auto Rate Cut Pedal."
  5. The White House. "Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Adjusts Imports of Automobiles and Automobile Parts into the United States."
  6. Investing.com. "Earnings call transcript: Allstate misses EPS forecast but beats revenue in Q1 2025."
  7. Yahoo!. "Why tariffs are expected to increase car insurance costs."
  8. Maryland Insurance Administration. "Understanding Enhanced Underinsured Motorist Coverage."
  9. National Insurance Crime Bureau. "Vehicle Thefts in United States Fell 17% in 2024."
  10. R Street. "2024 Insurance Regulation Report Card."
  11. Woop Insurance Agency. "Why Is Delaware Car Insurance So Expensive?."
  12. Insurance Institute for Highway Safety. "Fatality Facts 2023 State by state."
  13. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. "Overview of Motor Vehicle Traffic Crashes In 2023."
  14. Insurance Information Institute. "Facts + Statistics: Uninsured motorists."
  15. North Carolina Department of Insurance. "Commissioner Causey settles automobile insurance rate case, avoids costly hearing."
  16. Florida Office of Insurance Regulation. "Catastrophe Claims Data and Reporting."
  17. National Weather Service. "August 19, 2024 Supercell Thunderstorm."
  18. Cowboy State Daily. "Wild Winds Up To 90 MPH Blow Over At Least 9 Semis On Wyoming Highways."
  19. Storm Prediction Center. "2024 State Statistics for National for Annual."
  20. New York Times. "Geyser of Floodwater Erupts in New York Subway Station."
  21. South Carolina Department of Insurance. "2024 Status Report on the South Carolina Coastal Property Insurance Market."
  22. CBS. "Before-and-after images show RVs swept away, homes destroyed by Texas floods."
  23. Insurify. "10 States With the Sharpest 3-Year Increase in Severe Hail."
  24. California Department of Insurance. "California's public consumer claims tracker continues to show progress in wildfire claim amounts, payments, and auto claims."
  25. National Centers for Environmental Information. "Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters."
Matt Brannon
Matt BrannonData Journalist

Matt is a data journalist at Insurify. His journalism background spans 10 years, beginning as a newspaper reporter before moving into online data journalism. While working at the Redding Record Searchlight, Matt’s writing and reporting earned multiple awards from the California News Publishers Association.

Since moving into online content, Matt has specialized in personal finance topics. His writing emphasizes data and trends, highlighting takeaways that help consumers make informed decisions. He has been cited as a personal finance expert by the Associated Press. His research has been featured in Business Insider, CNBC, and the Wall Street Journal.

Matt holds a B.S. in journalism from the University of Florida and resides in St. Petersburg, Florida. Outside of work, Matt enjoys exploring new cities, reading about history, and grumbling over his fantasy football team.

Evelyn Pimplaskar
Edited byEvelyn PimplaskarEditor-in-Chief, Director of Content
Evelyn Pimplaskar
Evelyn PimplaskarEditor-in-Chief, Director of Content
  • 10+ years in insurance and personal finance content

  • 30+ years in media, PR, and content creation

Evelyn leads Insurify’s content team. She’s passionate about creating empowering content to help people transform their financial lives and make sound insurance-buying decisions.

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Chase Gardner
Data reviewed byChase GardnerData Insights Manager
Headshot of Chase Gardner
Chase GardnerData Insights Manager
  • Data expert on auto trends and driver behavior

  • University of Chicago graduate with statistics degree

Chase spearheads analytics for Insurify’s data insights team. With his deep expertise in insurance data, Chase is often interviewed on industry trends.

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