These 20 Cities Have the Most Competitive Real Estate Markets in 2022

The U.S. housing climate is hotter than ever, and real estate markets in these twenty cities are on fire in 2022.

After competition across U.S. housing markets skyrocketed in 2020, many experts forecasted that the national real estate climate would stay hot in 2022.^[1] Few, however, predicted just how high home prices would actually climb over the course of the year. The average home price jumped a record 18.8% year over year in 2022, with no immediate slowdown in sight.^[2] Forecasters expect sales prices to grow by an additional 11% in 2022, even as the Federal Reserve raises mortgage rates more quickly than it has in decades.^[2]

These nationwide trends all point to one simple reality for prospective homebuyers: securing a home in 2022 is more challenging than ever before. And if the national environment is hot, home markets in the country’s most competitive cities are absolutely scorching. Curious to see where home market heat has risen the most over the past year, data scientists at Insurify used national housing data from Zillow to identify the twenty cities with the most competitive real estate markets in 2022.

Insights

• National averages. Home values increased by an average of 20.6% across the U.S. between March 2021 and March 2022. Over the same time period, 47.9% of homes sold for an amount above their list price, and the typical home spent just 10 days listed on Zillow.com before entering sales negotiations. Overall, the average U.S. metropolitan area has a Competitive Market Score of 62.3 out of 100 in 2022.

• Housing markets are hot down South and out West. Real estate markets in the southern and western U.S. are outpacing those in the Midwest and on the East Coast. A whopping eighteen of the top twenty most competitive home markets in 2022 are located in either the South or the West; only two are on the East Coast, and none are in the Midwest. Statewide, Utah has the most competitive real estate climate, while Wisconsin has the least competitive climate.

• Bigger home markets are significantly more likely to be competitive. Insurify data scientists found a significant (p < 0.05), positive relationship between a city’s population and its Competitive Market Score. This means that the more residents a metro area has, the more competitive its real estate market is likely to be. This relationship is a reversal of trends seen early in the COVID-19 pandemic, when smaller home markets got hot as residents looked to move out of large, crowded cities. San Francisco, which experienced a stagnant home market throughout much of 2020, is now over 30% more competitive than the overall U.S. market. Combined, the twenty-five largest metropolitan areas in the country have Competitive Market Scores 9% higher than the national average. Not every large market is going strong, however: New York City — the largest home market in the country — has a Competitive Market Score less than half as large as the national average.

Methodology

The data scientists at Insurify, a home insurance comparison platform, referred to Zillow’s Housing Data to identify the metropolitan areas with the most competitive real estate markets in 2022. Cities were evaluated across three metrics: home value increase (the percent change in Zillow’s Home Value Index, a smoothed measure of the typical home value in a given market, between March 2022 and March 2022), share of homes sold above list price (percent of homes sales with a sale price greater than their final list price), and median days on Zillow (the number of days the typical home spends on Zillow.com between first sales listing and pending status, which indicates the start of sales contract negotiations).

Zillow compiles monthly data on these measures across all metropolitan areas in the United States. To calculate how competitive a city’s real estate market has been over the past year, the data scientists at Insurify took the average of each of the three metrics from March 2022-March 2022. These values were then used to create a standardized composite score out of 100 for each metropolitan area, where a higher score indicates a more competitive market. For this study, researchers evaluated the 268 largest metropolitan areas in the U.S.

The findings in this article represent statistical trends found in Insurify’s analysis of national real estate data. The findings of this study are not meant to imply the direction nor necessarily the existence of a causal relationship. Rather, this is a presentation of statistical correlations of public interest.

20 Cities with the Most Competitive Real Estate Markets (2022)

20. Nashville, TN

• Competitive Market Score: 83.3 out of 100

• Average home value increase (March 2021 - March 2022): 31.5%

• Share of homes sold above list price: 52.6%

• Median days on Zillow (from first listing to pending status): 6

19. Concord, NH

• Competitive Market Score: 83.5 out of 100

• Average home value increase (March 2021 - March 2022): 22.2%

• Share of homes sold above list price: 71.1%

• Median days on Zillow (from first listing to pending status): 7

18. Punta Gorda, FL

• Competitive Market Score: 83.7 out of 100

• Average home value increase (March 2021 - March 2022): 42.9%

• Share of homes sold above list price: 34.6%

• Median days on Zillow (from first listing to pending status): 7

17. San Diego, CA

• Competitive Market Score: 84.2 out of 100

• Average home value increase (March 2021 - March 2022): 27.8%

• Share of homes sold above list price: 63.9%

• Median days on Zillow (from first listing to pending status): 8

16. Denver, CO

• Competitive Market Score: 84.9 out of 100

• Average home value increase (March 2021 - March 2022): 24.3%

• Share of homes sold above list price: 66.1%

• Median days on Zillow (from first listing to pending status): 5

15. Charlotte, NC

• Competitive Market Score: 85.2 out of 100

• Average home value increase (March 2021 - March 2022): 29.6%

• Share of homes sold above list price: 57.2%

• Median days on Zillow (from first listing to pending status): 5

14. Provo, UT

• Competitive Market Score: 85.5 out of 100

• Average home value increase (March 2021 - March 2022): 28.9%

• Share of homes sold above list price: 64.0%

• Median days on Zillow (from first listing to pending status): 8

13. Bremerton, WA

• Competitive Market Score: 85.9 out of 100

• Average home value increase (March 2021 - March 2022): 21.9%

• Share of homes sold above list price: 73.6%

• Median days on Zillow (from first listing to pending status): 6

12. Naples, FL

• Competitive Market Score: 86.9 out of 100

• Average home value increase (March 2021 - March 2022): 47.2%

• Share of homes sold above list price: 33.5%

• Median days on Zillow (from first listing to pending status): 8

11. Manchester, NH

• Competitive Market Score: 86.9 out of 100

• Average home value increase (March 2021 - March 2022): 21.3%

• Share of homes sold above list price: 76.3%

• Median days on Zillow (from first listing to pending status): 6

10. Seattle, WA

• Competitive Market Score: 87.6 out of 100

• Average home value increase (March 2021 - March 2022): 24.8%

• Share of homes sold above list price: 71.2%

• Median days on Zillow (from first listing to pending status): 6

9. Killeen, TX

• Competitive Market Score: 87.7 out of 100

• Average home value increase (March 2021 - March 2022): 31.7%

• Share of homes sold above list price: 57.2%

• Median days on Zillow (from first listing to pending status): 5

8. Olympia, WA

• Competitive Market Score: 87.8 out of 100

• Average home value increase (March 2021 - March 2022): 23.3%

• Share of homes sold above list price: 74.2%

• Median days on Zillow (from first listing to pending status): 6

7. Salt Lake City, UT

• Competitive Market Score: 88.1 out of 100

• Average home value increase (March 2021 - March 2022): 28.8%

• Share of homes sold above list price: 64.8%

• Median days on Zillow (from first listing to pending status): 6

6. North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL

• Competitive Market Score: 89.0 out of 100

• Average home value increase (March 2021 - March 2022): 42.4%

• Share of homes sold above list price: 42.1%

• Median days on Zillow (from first listing to pending status): 6

5. Burlington, NC

• Competitive Market Score: 90.7 out of 100

• Average home value increase (March 2021 - March 2022): 30.9%

• Share of homes sold above list price: 63.4%

• Median days on Zillow (from first listing to pending status): 5

4. Austin, TX

• Competitive Market Score: 92.5 out of 100

• Average home value increase (March 2021 - March 2022): 42.7%

• Share of homes sold above list price: 64.3%

• Median days on Zillow (from first listing to pending status): 16

3. Ogden, UT

• Competitive Market Score: 92.9 out of 100

• Average home value increase (March 2021 - March 2022): 32.0%

• Share of homes sold above list price: 66.7%

• Median days on Zillow (from first listing to pending status): 6

2. Durham, NC

• Competitive Market Score: 93.2 out of 100

• Average home value increase (March 2021 - March 2022): 32.8%

• Share of homes sold above list price: 65.7%

• Median days on Zillow (from first listing to pending status): 6

1. Raleigh, NC

• Competitive Market Score: 100.0 out of 100

• Average home value increase (March 2021 - March 2022): 34.9%

• Share of homes sold above list price: 70.9%

• Median days on Zillow (from first listing to pending status): 5

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