Tariffs Could Raise Prices for Popular New Models by 15% — and Make Car Insurance More Expensive

United States tariff policy continues to evolve, altering projections for how the import duties will affect car prices and insurance rates.

Insurify expects that new rules limiting how tariffs apply to cars and car parts will result in drivers paying less than they would’ve paid under the administration’s previous, stricter tariff policies but still more than they would have paid if the government didn’t impose tariffs.^[1]

Insurify data scientists project that insurance costs for the average vehicle could rise 9% by the end of the year, up from 5% before tariffs. The increase would bring the projected annual cost to $2,527 by the end of 2025.

Meanwhile, the sales price of the average new car could rise about 15% because of tariffs, according to an Insurify analysis of the 100 bestselling new cars of 2025. Insurify projects these new models could see annual insurance costs rise an additional 6% on average due to tariffs.

“Insurers are bracing for more expensive claims as tariffs raise costs for auto parts,” said Mallory Mooney, director of sales and service at Insurify. “Tariffs could increase car insurance costs for all models, with new models facing larger increases, as more expensive cars are generally more costly to insure.”

Tariffs raise costs for parts and models assembled internationally. Only about 48% of new popular models are assembled solely in the U.S., followed by Mexico (19%) and South Korea (12%), according to National Highway Traffic Safety Administration data.

To better estimate how tariffs could impact new car models, Insurify data scientists estimated tariff-driven increases in purchase prices and insurance costs for 100 popular vehicles.

Key findings

• The typical new car sales price could increase about 15% due to tariffs, and insurance costs could rise 6%, based on each vehicle’s share of domestic content and assembly location.

• Among carmakers with multiple new models, new Buicks and Hyundais would see the highest average tariff-related increase in sales price, at 22%, followed by Kias at 21%. Tesla (5%) and Jeep (6%) would see the lowest average increase in sales price.

• Of the three most popular new car models in the U.S., the Toyota RAV4 would see the highest projected cost increase due to tariffs, at 25%, followed by the Chevrolet Silverado (12%) and Ford F-Series (11%).

• For the average vehicle on the road, car insurance costs may increase by 9% by the end of the year, raising the average annual cost to $2,527. Before tariffs, costs were expected to rise 5%.

How much tariffs could raise new car prices, by automaker

Insurify analyzed the 100 most popular new car models, including 16 carmakers who have multiple models in the top 100.

Based on each new model’s assembly location and the estimated share of foreign content within the vehicle, the brands expected to see the largest tariff-related increases in purchase price are Buick, Hyundai, and Kia. Despite being an American company, Buick assembles three of its four new models outside the U.S., subjecting them to 25% tariffs.

Jeep (6%) and Tesla (5%) models could average the lowest tariff-related price increases. Tesla’s most popular new models, the Model X and Model 3, are assembled in the U.S. with at least 60% domestic content.

Carmaker	Projected Price Increase for New Models Due to Tariffs	Projected Insurance Cost Increase Due to Tariffs
Buick	22%	8%
Hyundai	22%	8%
Kia	21%	8%
BMW	19%	8%
Mazda	19%	8%
Lexus	17%	6%
Subaru	16%	6%
Chevrolet	15%	7%
Nissan	15%	6%
Volkswagen	14%	6%
Toyota	14%	6%
Ford	13%	6%
GMC	12%	6%
Honda	8%	4%
Jeep	6%	4%
Tesla	5%	3%

*Only includes carmakers with multiple models in the top 100 of sales for quarter 1 2025.

In addition to higher sales prices, tariffs will also raise the average insurance cost for new models. The five makers facing the highest projected average increases across new bestselling vehicles are Buick, Hyundai, Kia, BMW, and Mazda. The two new Tesla editions included in Insurify’s projections, Model X and Model 3, are made mostly of U.S. content, mitigating tariff effects.

On a model-by-model basis, as many as 23 cars could see insurance rates climb by an additional 9 percentage points. The most popular of these are the Toyota RAV4, Chevrolet Trax, Subaru Forester, Mazda CX-5, and Hyundai Elantra.

Toyota RAV4 and Subaru Forester are among the new models that tariffs will impact the most

Insurify projects the typical new model will see a 15% price increase due to tariffs. But many models assembled outside the U.S. could see tariff-related purchase price increases of up to 25%.

That includes the Toyota RAV4, the third-bestselling new model in the U.S., which is assembled in Japan and has no domestic content, according to NHTSA data.

Among other popular models facing the highest 25% tariff are the Subaru Forester and Mazda CX-5, both of which are also assembled in Japan.

Overall, 23 of the most popular new models face the highest tariff-related purchase price increase of 25%, according to Insurify estimates.

The four new models tied for the lowest expected tariff-related price increase of 3% are the Honda Ridgeline, Dodge Durango, Tesla Model 3, and Jeep Gladiator.

Of the 100 bestselling new models, 22 could face both a 25% increase in sales prices and a 9% increase in annual insurance costs. That includes seven of the top 50 bestselling new models of 2025: the Toyota RAV4, Chevrolet Trax, Subaru Forester, Mazda CX-5, Hyundai Elantra, Chevrolet Trailblazer, and Hyundai Palisade.

Bestselling New Model	Projected Price Increase Due to Tariffs	Projected Insurance Cost Increase Due to Tariffs	Assembly Country	Percentage of U.S. Content
Average Bestselling New Model	15%	6%	-	32%
BMW 4-Series	25%	9%	Germany	0%
Buick Encore	25%	9%	South Korea	2%
Buick Envision	25%	9%	China	6%
Buick Envista	25%	9%	South Korea	3%
Chevrolet Trailblazer	25%	9%	South Korea	3%
Chevrolet Trax	25%	9%	South Korea	2%
Honda Civic	17%	4%	Japan/Canada/U.S.	52%
Hyundai Elantra	25%	9%	South Korea	0%
Hyundai Kona	25%	9%	South Korea	1%
Hyundai Palisade	25%	9%	South Korea	2%
Hyundai Sonata	25%	9%	South Korea	0%
Kia Carnival	25%	9%	South Korea	2%
Kia K5	25%	9%	South Korea	0%
Kia Seltos	25%	9%	South Korea	1%
Kia Soul	25%	9%	South Korea	1%
Lexus NX	25%	6%	Japan	32%
Mazda CX-5	25%	9%	Japan	0%
Mazda CX-90	25%	9%	Japan	0%
Mitsubishi Outlander	25%	9%	Japan	4%
Subaru Crosstrek	20%	7%	Japan/U.S.	25%
Subaru Forester	25%	9%	Japan	0%
Toyota Land Cruiser	25%	9%	Japan	0%
Toyota Prius	25%	9%	Japan	0%
Toyota RAV4	25%	9%	Japan	0%
Volvo XC60	25%	9%	Sweden	0%
Audi Q5	21%	9%	Mexico	2%
BMW X3	19%	8%	U.S.	9%
Mazda CX-30	19%	8%	Mexico	10%
Nissan Kicks	19%	8%	Mexico	10%
Nissan Sentra	19%	8%	Mexico	10%
Chevrolet Equinox	18%	8%	Mexico	15%
Chevrolet Equinox EV	18%	8%	Mexico	12%
Ford Mustang Mach E	18%	8%	Mexico	13%
Hyundai Tucson	20%	8%	Mexico/U.S./Korea	14%
Nissan Versa	18%	8%	Mexico	15%
Volkswagen Jetta	18%	8%	Mexico	11%
Kia Sportage	21%	8%	U.S./Korea	15%
Toyota Corolla	21%	7%	U.S./Japan	18%
Volkswagen Taos	17%	8%	Mexico	17%
Chevrolet Blazer	16%	7%	Mexico	22%
Ford Bronco Sport	16%	7%	Mexico	23%
Kia K4	16%	7%	Mexico	20%
Kia Sorento	21%	7%	U.S./Korea	19%
Ford Maverick	15%	7%	Mexico	27%
Nissan Rogue	20%	7%	U.S./Japan	25%
Honda HR-V	14%	6%	Mexico	30%
Jeep Compass	14%	7%	Mexico	28%
BMW X5	13%	6%	U.S.	32%
Buick Enclave	13%	6%	U.S.	35%
Chevrolet Traverse	13%	6%	U.S.	35%
GMC Acadia	13%	6%	U.S.	35%
Lexus RX	17%	6%	Canada/Japan	32%
Toyota Tacoma	13%	6%	Mexico	33%
Cadillac Escalade	12%	6%	U.S.	37%
Chevrolet Silverado	12%	6%	U.S.	37%
Chevrolet Suburban	12%	6%	U.S.	37%
Chevrolet Tahoe	12%	6%	U.S.	37%
Ford Escape	12%	6%	U.S.	36%
GMC Sierra	12%	6%	U.S.	37%
GMC Terrain	12%	6%	Mexico	37%
GMC Yukon	12%	6%	U.S.	37%
Honda Prologue	12%	6%	Mexico	36%
Ford Bronco	11%	5%	U.S.	42%
Ford Expedition	11%	5%	U.S.	42%
Ford Explorer	11%	5%	U.S.	43%
Ford F-Series	11%	5%	U.S.	40%
Hyundai Santa Fe	11%	5%	U.S.	43%
Nissan Frontier	11%	5%	U.S.	40%
Ford Ranger	10%	5%	U.S.	46%
Lexus TX	10%	5%	U.S.	45%
Chevrolet Colorado	9%	5%	U.S.	49%
Nissan Altima	9%	5%	U.S.	50%
Nissan Pathfinder	9%	5%	U.S.	50%
Subaru Ascent	9%	5%	U.S.	50%
Subaru Outback	9%	5%	U.S.	50%
Honda CR-V	8%	4%	U.S./Canada	54%
Mazda CX-50	8%	4%	U.S.	55%
RAM Pickup	8%	4%	U.S.	55%
Toyota Camry	8%	4%	U.S.	55%
Toyota Corolla Cross	8%	4%	U.S.	55%
Toyota Tundra	8%	4%	U.S.	53%
Chevrolet Express	7%	4%	U.S.	57%
Honda Accord	7%	4%	U.S.	58%
Kia Telluride	6%	4%	U.S.	60%
Tesla Model X	6%	4%	U.S.	60%
Toyota Grand Highlander	6%	4%	U.S.	60%
Toyota Highlander	6%	4%	U.S.	60%
Toyota Sienna	6%	4%	U.S.	60%
Volkswagen Atlas	6%	4%	U.S.	60%
Acura MDX	5%	3%	U.S.	67%
Chrysler Pacifica	4%	3%	Canada	69%
Honda Odyssey	4%	3%	U.S.	70%
Honda Passport	4%	3%	U.S.	70%
Honda Pilot	4%	3%	U.S.	70%
Jeep Grand Cherokee	4%	3%	U.S.	71%
Jeep Wrangler	4%	3%	U.S.	68%
Dodge Durango	3%	2%	U.S.	73%
Honda Ridgeline	3%	3%	U.S.	73%
Jeep Gladiator	3%	2%	U.S.	74%
Tesla Model 3	3%	2%	U.S.	73%

*For vehicles with multiple available trims, increases in sales price and insurance costs were averaged across trims. Assembly countries vary for certain models based on trim.

Tariffs could increase average car insurance costs 80% faster by the end of 2025

Tariffs make car insurance more expensive because they make car parts, which are often imported, more expensive. Insurify’s projections for how tariffs will change pricing for car insurance have evolved over the past few months as the administration has added, exempted, and revised tariffs that would impact pricing for car parts.

Before the U.S. announced tariffs, Insurify projected inflation and insurer losses would push the average cost of car insurance 5% higher by the end of the year. By April, that projected increase rose to 19%, following multiple sets of tariffs that would affect auto parts pricing.

Since then, tariff policy has softened, with the government appearing to clarify that tariffs would not “stack” — meaning auto parts that could’ve been tariffed multiple times would instead only face the highest applicable individual tariff.^[2]

Following the latest adjustments to tariff policy, Insurify projects the average cost of car insurance could rise 9% by the end of the year. That figure is an estimate based on the share of domestic vs. foreign content in the average vehicle, as well as factoring in approximate exemptions for parts compliant with the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA).

Projection: Average Annual Cost of Car Insurance With Tariffs by the End of 2025

	With Tariffs: Projected Annual Cost by End of 2025	Without Tariffs: Projected Annual Cost by End of 2025	Estimated Cost Increase Attributable to Tariffs
Alabama	$1,811	$1,743	$68
Arizona	$2,142	$2,063	$79
Arkansas	$2,654	$2,557	$97
California	$2,835	$2,732	$103
Colorado	$2,991	$2,878	$113
Connecticut	$2,698	$2,600	$98
Delaware	$3,431	$3,308	$123
Florida	$3,610	$3,484	$126
Georgia	$3,165	$3,052	$113
Hawaii	$1,540	$1,481	$59
Idaho	$1,544	$1,485	$59
Illinois	$2,128	$2,050	$78
Indiana	$1,757	$1,691	$66
Iowa	$1,704	$1,640	$64
Kansas	$2,055	$1,977	$78
Kentucky	$2,375	$2,288	$87
Louisiana	$3,057	$2,944	$113
Maine	$1,277	$1,229	$48
Maryland	$4,418	$4,255	$163
Massachusetts	$1,888	$1,816	$72
Michigan	$3,025	$2,915	$110
Minnesota	$2,740	$2,639	$101
Mississippi	$2,481	$2,390	$91
Missouri	$2,398	$2,310	$88
Montana	$1,975	$1,901	$74
Nebraska	$1,800	$1,734	$66
Nevada	$3,333	$3,214	$119
New Hampshire	$1,021	$981	$40
New Jersey	$2,737	$2,637	$100
New Mexico	$1,976	$1,900	$76
New York	$4,335	$4,183	$152
North Carolina	$1,390	$1,339	$51
North Dakota	$1,334	$1,283	$51
Ohio	$1,539	$1,481	$58
Oklahoma	$2,176	$2,094	$82
Oregon	$1,930	$1,857	$73
Pennsylvania	$2,294	$2,209	$85
Rhode Island	$2,584	$2,487	$97
South Carolina	$3,738	$3,603	$135
South Dakota	$1,908	$1,838	$70
Tennessee	$1,806	$1,740	$66
Texas	$2,995	$2,886	$109
Utah	$2,186	$2,105	$81
Vermont	$1,593	$1,530	$63
Virginia	$2,436	$2,345	$91
Washington	$2,205	$2,125	$80
West Virginia	$1,994	$1,918	$76
Wisconsin	$1,797	$1,730	$67
Wyoming	$1,565	$1,506	$59

Source: *Insurify analysis of car insurance data and tariffs as of May 2025

The average driver in Maryland, which already has the highest average insurance cost in the U.S., could pay an added $162 due to tariffs. Before the U.S. imposed new tariffs, Insurify projected that four states would see costs remain flat or decrease. With tariffs, each state would see a year-over-year price increase, ranging from about 2% to 14% on average.

State	With Tariffs: Projected Annual Cost by End of 2025	Without Tariffs: Projected Annual Cost by End of 2025	Estimated Cost Increase Attributable to Tariffs	Projected Year-Over-Year Cost Increase With Tariffs
United States	$2,527	$2,435	$92	9%
Alabama	$1,811	$1,743	$68	6%
Arizona	$2,142	$2,063	$79	9%
Arkansas	$2,654	$2,557	$97	9%
California	$2,835	$2,732	$103	10%
Colorado	$2,991	$2,878	$113	6%
Connecticut	$2,698	$2,600	$98	10%
Delaware	$3,431	$3,308	$123	11%
Florida	$3,610	$3,484	$126	14%
Georgia	$3,165	$3,052	$113	12%
Hawaii	$1,540	$1,481	$59	3%
Idaho	$1,544	$1,485	$59	4%
Illinois	$2,128	$2,050	$78	8%
Indiana	$1,757	$1,691	$66	6%
Iowa	$1,704	$1,640	$64	8%
Kansas	$2,055	$1,977	$78	6%
Kentucky	$2,375	$2,288	$87	9%
Louisiana	$3,057	$2,944	$113	8%
Maine	$1,277	$1,229	$48	5%
Maryland	$4,418	$4,255	$163	9%
Massachusetts	$1,888	$1,816	$72	5%
Michigan	$3,025	$2,915	$110	10%
Minnesota	$2,740	$2,639	$101	9%
Mississippi	$2,481	$2,390	$91	9%
Missouri	$2,398	$2,310	$88	9%
Montana	$1,975	$1,901	$74	6%
Nebraska	$1,800	$1,734	$66	8%
Nevada	$3,333	$3,214	$119	12%
New Hampshire	$1,021	$981	$40	2%
New Jersey	$2,737	$2,637	$100	10%
New Mexico	$1,976	$1,900	$76	4%
New York	$4,335	$4,183	$152	14%
North Carolina	$1,390	$1,339	$51	10%
North Dakota	$1,334	$1,283	$51	6%
Ohio	$1,539	$1,481	$58	6%
Oklahoma	$2,176	$2,094	$82	6%
Oregon	$1,930	$1,857	$73	7%
Pennsylvania	$2,294	$2,209	$85	8%
Rhode Island	$2,584	$2,487	$97	7%
South Carolina	$3,738	$3,603	$135	10%
South Dakota	$1,908	$1,838	$70	8%
Tennessee	$1,806	$1,740	$66	8%
Texas	$2,995	$2,886	$109	10%
Utah	$2,186	$2,105	$81	8%
Vermont	$1,593	$1,530	$63	2%
Virginia	$2,436	$2,345	$91	7%
Washington	$2,205	$2,125	$80	10%
West Virginia	$1,994	$1,918	$76	5%
Wisconsin	$1,797	$1,730	$67	7%
Wyoming	$1,565	$1,506	$59	6%

State by state: The most common car brands on the road

Residents in some states rely more on automakers that are relatively exposed to tariff-related cost increases. Chevrolet is the most popular automaker in 28 states, and Insurify projects that its new models could average a 15% increase in sales price and up to a 7% increase in annual insurance costs. Of 11 popular new Chevrolet models, 10 source a majority of their content from outside the U.S.

Although Honda is a Japanese company, its newer models stand to face lower tariff-related increases. Seven of nine popular new Honda models are made mostly from U.S. content.

Carmaker	Projected Average Sales Price Increase for New Models Due to Tariffs	Projected Average Insurance Increase for New Models Due to Tariffs
Chevrolet	15%	7%
Toyota	14%	6%
Ford	13%	6%
Honda	8%	4%

What drivers should know about tariffs

It will take time for tariff-related costs to show up in the typical driver’s car insurance rates. At the earliest, drivers might notice these costs around the end of 2025. Before insurers can raise rates due to tariffs, they generally have to submit requests to state regulators, explaining how they’re spending more money on claims due to more expensive costs for parts.

Consumers still have options for saving money on car insurance. Drivers can compare quotes from a variety of insurance companies to find the best available deal. They can raise their deductible to secure lower premiums, or they can make use of telematics devices or programs that track driver behavior.

Ultimately, the most important factor in keeping one’s auto insurance rates affordable is a safe personal driving history.

Methodology

To see how tariffs could impact new vehicle prices and insurance, Insurify data scientists looked at the 100 bestselling models in quarter 1 of 2025 for which American Automobile Labeling Act (AALA) data is available. Specifically, they analyzed the share of each vehicle’s content made outside the United States and each vehicle’s country of final assembly. Where applicable, the data represent an average across a model’s different trims.

Vehicle price increase projections reflect a flat 25% tariff on all vehicles imported from countries outside the United States, Mexico, and Canada. For models assembled in these three countries, the projections represent a 25% tariff on a model’s non-U.S. content and up to a 15% tariff discount of the total MSRP, as the White House has announced will be in effect for the next year.^[1]

For models that are not new, insurance projections in this report factor in two main tariff costs, including the 25% automobile and auto parts tariffs and 25% tariffs on an estimated share of car parts from Canada and Mexico that are not USMCA-compliant. Insurify’s data scientists then calculated how these tariffs would affect car insurance rates by factoring in the proportion of average vehicle content that is foreign.

From there, Insurify analyzed the share of typical vehicle repair costs represented by parts and the proportion of a standard full-coverage car insurance policy that covers damages to one’s own or another’s vehicle. Insurify calculated tariffs’ effects on auto insurance prices on a national level and then equally distributed across states.

To calculate baseline prices, Insurify’s data scientists examined more than 97 million rates in the company’s proprietary database, quoted via integrations with over 120 insurance partners. Driver applications originate from all 50 states and Washington, D.C., and include information on the exact coverage specifications of each driver’s quoted policies. Insurify excluded Alaska data due to lower quoting volume.

The premiums in this report reflect the median insurance cost for drivers between the ages of 20 and 70 with clean driving records and average or better credit, unless otherwise noted. Yearly prices in this report are two-year rolling medians to manage extreme market volatility over the past few years.

For media inquiries or questions about our study, please contact the author here.