Experts predict a better homebuying season, but only 8% of homeowners have buying a home as a 2026 financial goal
Real estate experts predict a surge in home sales in 2026.[8] December saw a 5.1% jump in home sales, but 2025 is still among the worst years for home sales in decades.[9]
Rising sales won’t come as a result of declining home prices, but from job growth and stabilizing mortgage rates, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). Mortgage rates also remain elevated, at around 6%, according to Freddie Mac.[10]
Nearly 30 million households have mortgage rates at or below 4%, so some may not be able to afford what they currently have if they bought a home at today’s interest rates.[11] The average mortgage rate in 2025 was 6.7%, and NAR experts predict it will drop to around 6% in 2026 — still not even close to the 3% rates seen in 2020 and 2021.
Still, while the market might be improving, just 8% of surveyed homeowners named buying a home as one of their 2026 financial goals. The number is slightly higher among non-homeowners, at 18%, but more than half of them (53%) said they were slightly or significantly behind on meeting their 2025 financial goals, which doesn’t bode well for 2026.
The 12% of surveyed Americans who want to buy a home in 2026 are worried about the costs of homeownership. More than half (55%) are concerned about interest rates.
Many also named several associated costs as unaffordable: 41% said mortgage/rent payments, 32% said home insurance, 31% said home maintenance, and 28% said utilities. Two-thirds said the cost of living got in the way of them achieving their 2025 financial goals, and 29% said they were slightly or significantly behind on those goals.
Rising home insurance costs have been adding to the cost of homeownership, as rates climbed by 20% in the last two years. The national average annual cost of home insurance is $3,017 for $400,000 of dwelling coverage, according to Insurify data.
“Homeowners aren’t just worried about their mortgage rate; they’re worried about everything that comes with owning a home, and insurance is increasingly a part of that conversation,” said Mallory Mooney, director of sales and service at Insurify.
“When nearly a third of prospective buyers say home insurance feels unaffordable, it’s a sign that rising premiums are putting real pressure on monthly budgets,” she added. “The good news is that homeowners have options: comparing quotes, reviewing coverage, and looking for available discounts can help keep costs from becoming another barrier to homeownership.”
Respondents’ economic concerns and financial challenges demonstrate that a rebounding 2026 housing market won’t look the same at every level, since it remains “deeply uneven,” according to the NAR. Sales are more constrained at the lower price points than in the higher range, according to the NAR.
President’s housing affordability proposal receives mixed response
In a Truth Social post on Jan. 7, President Trump suggested that the U.S. should ban large institutional investors from buying single-family homes, arguing that this has pushed homeownership out of reach, especially for younger Americans. But a ban would affect only certain markets.
The cities with the highest share of investor-owned single-family rentals are largely in the Southeast. Atlanta has the highest share, with investors owning 25% of the market, according to a 2022 analysis from the U.S. Government Accountability Office.[12]
Jacksonville, Florida, and Charlotte, North Carolina, follow Atlanta, but in each city, individuals still own most of the single-family rentals. Trump’s proposed ban would also not force investors to sell their property, meaning it would prevent only future investments.
As home insurance costs rise, they’re having a more significant effect on affordability. But as of Jan. 14, the White House or Congress hasn’t indicated any plans to try to regulate the home insurance market on a federal level.
Other solutions, such as rezoning for higher housing density and taxing landlord profits, would be more effective, according to Daryl Fairweather, Redfin’s chief economist.[13] Building more housing and preventing any party — corporate or individual — from profiting off the housing crisis is key to solving the affordability crisis, she wrote in an online post.
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