Nearly 33M Coastal Homes at Risk From ‘Very Active’ Hurricane Season, Report Says

Hurricane season is here, and more than 32.7 million homes on the U.S. Gulf and East Coasts are at risk from hurricane damage. If the almost unimaginable happened and all sustained catastrophic damage, it would cost nearly $11 trillion to rebuild them, according to a new report by CoreLogic.

The information services company looked at rebuilding costs for single- and multi-family homes in communities from Texas to Maine. Not surprisingly, the regions CoreLogic found to be most at risk for catastrophic weather events also have high homeowners insurance costs.

“The difference in reconstruction cost value and insured value is widening,” the report concludes. “Coverage cannot keep up with the rising amount of risk, whether because of changes in natural disaster activity (e.g. climate change) or shifts in exposure (e.g. more development, people moving to disaster-prone areas like the coast).

Spreading home insurance crises

High winds and storm surges are the most commonly faced risks of hurricane season, and homeowners rely on home insurance and flood insurance to help them rebuild when disaster strikes. But states across the U.S. are experiencing rising home insurance rates, and some have reached crisis levels.

California’s and Florida’s home insurance crises are spurred by the areas’ high risk of climate-change-related weather disasters. Both states have also experienced a shrinking home insurance marketplace, as multiple insurers either stopped writing new policies or left the states altogether.

The increase in risk and the reduction in insurance options means homeowners in affected states are seeing higher home insurance and flood insurance costs.

For example, 73% of California homeowners with flood insurance through the National Flood Insurance Program will see an increase of $120 per year, while 4% are facing annual increases of $240 or more. And Florida homeowners pay the highest insurance rates in the country: $10,996 annually, according to Insurify data.

Wind damage risks

Researchers assessed property exposure to damage from hurricane winds and storm surges, the main risks of any hurricane season.

In its 2024 Hurricane Risk Report, CoreLogic found that:

• More than 32.7 million homes are at moderate or greater risk, with potential reconstruction cost value (RCV) greater than $10.8 billion.

• Nearly 22.8 million homes have a high or greater risk, with a potential RCV of more than $7.1 billion.

• Close to 15 million homes have a very high or greater risk and an exposure greater than $4.1 billion.

• At extreme or greater risk applies to more than 6.4 million homes, with a potential RCV of $1.68 billion.

Storm surge flood risks

Approximately 7.7 million homes threatened by wind damage are also at risk of storm surge flooding, CoreLogic reports. Homes at the greatest risk are most likely to suffer flood damage in less severe storms, such as Category 1 hurricanes. But a catastrophic storm, such as a Category 5, would likely affect all at-risk properties.

The U.S. averages 17.7 hurricane strikes per decade — 5.6 of which are major — according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

From 2011–2020, the U.S. had 19 hurricanes, which included just four major storms and only one Category 5, NOAA data shows. By comparison, the U.S. has had four direct hurricane strikes since 2021, but three of them were major storms of Category 3 and higher.

“There were few landfalling and damaging hurricanes in the U.S. in 2023, despite the record warm Atlantic Ocean [sea surface temperature] and the resulting highly active season,” CoreLogic notes in its report.

What’s next: Active hurricane season ahead

NOAA and other weather experts have predicted an exceptionally active 2024 hurricane season. The administration expects 17–25 total named storms, with 8–13 storms likely evolving into hurricanes, and four to seven reaching land as a Category 3, 4, or 5, NOAA says.

Forecasting service WeatherBELL Analytics put it bluntly, predicting a “hurricane season from hell” in 2024. Areas that escaped hurricane impact in 2023 should prepare for “very high levels of activity,” the service warns.

WeatherBell forecasts three to five major hurricane impacts in the U.S.

In its report, CoreLogic refers to an infamous series of hurricanes that made landfall in the U.S. in 2005: Katrina, Wilma, Rita, Dennis, and Ophelia. Those storms claimed 1,408 lives and caused damage totaling over $100 billion. If those storms occurred in 2024, the ground-up damage value would be nearly $160 billion, CoreLogic says.

Homeowners, communities, and insurers should take steps to prepare for the season ahead, the company recommends.

“The 2024 hurricane season will likely be a very active season, potentially even more so than 2023 with a shift to La Niña conditions. The necessary ingredients will be present, so mitigation tactics should be top of mind in order to prevent significant losses should a storm make landfall in a coastal metropolitan area.”