Holiday Shopping Trends 2024: 84% of Americans Plan to Buy Online, But Porch Pirates and Payment Plans Could Hamper Gift Giving

Americans are putting a price tag on the holiday spirit, a new Insurify survey of more than 1,000 consumers reveals. Despite economic worries, U.S. shoppers plan to spend an average of $528 on holiday presents. But nearly four out of 10 online shoppers have experienced package theft — meaning many of those gifts might not make it to their intended recipients.

Those losses will hit the 14% of shoppers who expect to overspend on gifts harder than others. Americans plan to rely heavily on credit cards and buy-now-pay-later (BNPL) services to pay for presents this year, which leaves low-income Americans vulnerable to financial overextension.

In addition to surveying Americans about how these factors will affect their holiday shopping in 2024, Insurify consulted a law enforcement officer for tips on package theft prevention and a financial expert to learn how people can make the most of their gift budgets.

Key Takeaways

• Nearly three-quarters (73%) of gift buyers plan to shop on Amazon this holiday season, leaving them vulnerable to package theft.

• Eighteen percent of holiday shoppers will buy gifts a week or less before the holiday, but survey data suggests these shoppers see more frequent package thefts. More than one-third (34%) of last-minute gift buyers experience package thefts at least monthly, but only 3% of shoppers who plan to buy a month or more before the holiday report the same. (Insurify survey)

• Home insurance covers package theft, but more than three-fourths (76%) of stolen or missing packages cost $250 or less — far less than the standard $1,000 deductible. (Insurify survey)

• Deloitte forecasts a 7%–9% increase in holiday e-commerce sales compared to 2023, resulting in $289 billion to $294 billion in sales this season. (Deloitte)

• Shoppers who plan to buy all holiday gifts online are 4.6 times more likely to overspend than shoppers who plan to buy only in stores. (Insurify survey)

• Nearly one-fifth (19%) of U.S. consumers plan to use buy-now-pay-later (BNPL) programs, like Affirm and Klarna, to purchase holiday gifts this year. (Insurify survey)

• American shoppers expect to spend 12% of their average monthly income on holiday gifts in 2024. (Insurify survey, Bureau of Labor Statistics)

Porch pirates have targeted nearly 40% of American shoppers

Americans ordered 21.7 billion parcels (or about 65 packages per U.S. resident) in 2023, according to the global shipping company Pitney Bowes. Many of those parcels never reached their intended recipients, with 38% of Americans reporting stolen or missing packages in an Insurify poll. Of the shoppers who’ve suffered a package loss, 21% face thefts at least monthly.

Tracking down package thieves isn’t easy, says active-duty Arizona police Sgt. Joshua Lee. “Without advanced technology, it is a very manual process.”

First, law enforcement searches internal systems for identifiers like scars or tattoos to compare against police records. If they can’t find the suspect through identifiers, they create an internal police bulletin and hope an observant officer remembers the person.

“From there, most cases will fizzle out and die,” said Lee.

Lee recommends picking up delivered packages promptly, but holiday travel (which spikes around Thanksgiving and Christmas) means online shoppers won’t always be home to receive parcels. 

Frequent targets who want some chance of bringing the perpetrator to justice should install security cameras, says Lee. “Without camera footage, it is almost impossible to prove the theft and sustain a conviction.”

More than half (57%) of Americans have some form of home security, like a Ring doorbell, according to Insurify’s poll. Package lockers and outdoor security cameras are the most effective theft deterrents. Only 30% of people with a package locker and 33% with outdoor cameras have experienced package thefts, compared to the overall average of 38%.

Given limited law enforcement resources, consumers have better odds of recovering their losses by contacting the retailer directly. Most package theft victims (65%) have been able to get a refund or replacement from the retailer, but 22% have had to take the loss. For a lucky 11%, a neighbor usually returns the package, and 2% say “other” outcomes are more common.

Last-minute and Black Friday shoppers experience more frequent package thefts

Many Americans plan to do their gift shopping with time to spare, with 44% planning on shopping several weeks to a month before the holiday and 9% shopping more than a month before. But nearly half (47%) will shop during high-risk times for package thefts, including on Black Friday and Cyber Monday, or a week or less before the holiday.

Porch pirates know when to pilfer the most packages. Among the package theft victims in Insurify’s poll, last-minute shoppers are most likely to report one or more missing or stolen packages per month. 

Black Friday and Cyber Monday shoppers are frequent targets, too, with 31% reporting package loss at least monthly.

Google searches for “package theft” spiked between Nov. 26 and Dec. 23 last year, indicating more online shoppers experienced parcel loss during that time.

Shopping more than a month before the holidays may be the best strategy to avoid package theft. Insurify’s survey found that only 3% of shoppers who plan to buy gifts a month or more in advance experience package loss once or more monthly.

Homeowners insurance covers package thefts, but 97% of stolen goods cost less than the most common deductible

Package theft victims who can’t get a refund or replacement from the retailer have another option: filing a claim with their renters or home insurance company. But 62% of package theft victims in Insurify’s poll didn’t know their insurance covered the loss.

Even if they had known, filing a claim probably wasn’t worthwhile.

The average cost of the most valuable package consumers reported stolen is $235, according to Insurify survey data. Only 2.6% of stolen parcels cost more than the typical $1,000 home insurance deductible, and less than 10% of shoppers plan to spend more than $1,000 on all holiday gifts. Renters insurance also covers package theft, but the most common deductible of $500 is still higher than the value of most stolen packages.

If the price of stolen goods exceeds the deductible, policyholders need to balance the package’s value with how much their premium could increase from a claim, says Jacob Gee, a licensed insurance agent with Insurify.

“Home insurance is intended for major losses, not necessarily day-to-day occurrences. Rates will increase for the next five years if [insurers pay out] a claim. So, it would be a matter of comparing the amount of the claim versus the amount you would pay as a claim surcharge for the next five years,” said Gee.

Only one-quarter of victims have filed package theft claims with their insurers in the past. Insurify survey participants who plan to shop for holiday gifts at Best Buy were the most likely to have filed a claim (44%), possibly to cover costly electronics.

Gender differences further highlight this trend. Though men (33%) have experienced less parcel loss than women (40%), men file 38% more home insurance claims for stolen packages. Men are also 25% more likely to say they’ll shop for holiday gifts at Best Buy, and electronics thefts are often costly enough to rationalize a home insurance claim.

Filing a claim for a single stolen package — even for expensive items — is hard to justify. Homeowners have already seen a 20% increase in home insurance premiums between 2021 and 2023, pushing the average annual rate to $2,377.

Homeowners need to weigh the financial cost of absorbing this loss against potentially facing further home insurance premium hikes for filing a claim.

Insurers can take several days to months to process a home insurance claim, meaning the 18% of gift shoppers who plan to buy with a week or less to spare would likely receive reimbursement after the holiday season.

Amazon leads holiday gift sales, leaving online shoppers vulnerable to porch pirates

Most Americans (84%) plan to buy at least some holiday presents online this year, and 12% will do all their shopping online, according to Insurify’s survey. E-commerce will grow to 33% of all retail sales by 2027, according to Bloomberg Intelligence predictions.

Amazon is the most popular holiday gift seller, with 73% of survey respondents expecting to buy at least some presents from the site this year. 

The mega-retailer hit $170 billion in sales in the fourth quarter of 2023, with more than 1 billion items sold worldwide on Black Friday and Cyber Monday. Shoppers who plan to buy gifts on these deal days are 10.3 times as likely to report package thefts at least monthly compared to people who will shop a month or more in advance.

Walmart and Target are the second and third most popular retailers overall. Walmart is also the top shopping destination for consumers who plan to buy all holiday gifts in person.

Popular write-in responses included eBay, Kohl’s, Macy’s, and Temu.

All these retailers offer BNPL loans through Affirm, Sezzle, and Klarna, allowing shoppers to split purchases into multiple payments.

The rise of BNPL and ease of online shopping may fuel overspending, Insurify’s survey shows. Online-only shoppers are 4.6 times more likely than in-store-only shoppers to spend more than they can afford on holiday gifts.

Americans plan to spend 12% of their monthly income on holiday gifts this year and 19% will pay with loans

Porch pirates aren’t the only factor that could put a damper on holiday giving. Americans who believe they’ll overspend on gifts risk carrying the burden of that debt throughout 2025.

Insurify’s survey found Americans will spend an average of $528 on holiday gifts this year, representing about 12% of the country’s $4,572 median monthly income.^[1]

Many U.S. shoppers will stretch or surpass their budgets, with 61% planning to spend exactly what they can afford and 14% expecting to spend more than they can afford on holiday gifts. Even with every intention to spend only what they can afford, shoppers often have trouble keeping holiday expenses in check.

Curbing holiday spending is especially difficult for parents, says Nicole Stanley, owner and head money coach at Arise Financial Coaching. “I think we want to show our love through gifts. That’s probably the hardest thing I see people struggle with.”

Insurify data aligns with Stanley’s experience. Shoppers who expect to spend more than they can afford are 44% more likely to buy gifts for their children than people who plan to spend less than they can afford. 

These shoppers are also 2.3 times as likely to use BNPL to pay for gifts compared to consumers who plan to spend less than what they can afford this year.

Nearly one-fifth (19%) of shoppers plan on using BNPL services to cover costs.

Though many BNPL services offer interest-free loans, missing a payment can trigger late fees and hurt consumers’ credit scores. 

BNPL companies may also use consumer data to maximize the effectiveness of marketing campaigns and encourage more shopping, according to a Consumer Financial Protection Bureau report. Highly sophisticated ad targeting contributes to financial overextension.^[2]

Regional holiday shopping trends: Southerners are most likely to use BNPL and Midwesterners spend the most on holiday gifts

Americans from the South are more likely to use BNPL than any other region, with 23% of Southerners in Insurify’s poll planning to use the loans. They’re also most likely to buy more holiday gifts than they can afford this year — but they’ll spend the least of any region, at an average of $506.

Financial hardship may factor into the South’s holiday spending patterns, as it has the highest poverty rate of any region, according to U.S. Census Bureau data. More than half (55%) of consumers who use BNPL do so because it’s the only way they can afford the purchase, the Fed’s latest economic well-being report found.

Midwesterners plan to spend the most on holiday presents in 2024, at an average of $570 — but porch pirates threaten to hamper their generous gifting.

Midwestern online shoppers face the greatest risk of package theft. Of those who have experienced package theft, about 26% of Midwesterners have had parcel thefts once per month or more, compared to 15% of Northeasterners, 20% of Southerners, and 24% of Westerners.

How holiday shoppers can protect their finances and packages

As the 2024 holiday season approaches, economic anxiety is adding pressure on Americans who want to give generously without taking on debt.

Stanley believes families can reduce some of this anxiety (and their reliance on BNPL or credit cards) by talking openly about finances. “You can talk to your kids about how you as a family want the holiday season to be and start to readjust expectations.”

She recommends extended families opt for a Secret Santa or gift exchange rather than buying individual presents for everyone.

Spending hard-earned money on a gift only to have the package stolen can be demoralizing, but Lee says consumers can deter package thefts by taking the following steps:

• Install street-facing security cameras. Insurify survey data suggests security cameras are one of the most effective package theft deterrents, and the footage serves as evidence. “The street view is important because sometimes it is a lot easier to find a car than a person,” says Lee.

• Install a theft-prevention box. People who have a package delivery locker are less likely to experience theft, according to Insurify’s survey.

• Get packages delivered to a secure location. Lee acknowledges that theft-prevention boxes can be “expensive and large,” so he prefers to have his packages delivered to the post office. “It’s easy and secure, just not as convenient.” Amazon Lockers serve the same function.

• Don’t leave packages unattended. While “you can’t save your package from the porch pirates that follow the delivery drivers and then grab the package right after,” quickly picking up packages makes your porch less of a target.

Lee’s tips discourage package thefts, but Stanley ultimately believes the best holiday gifts don’t come in a box.

“There are things like Christmas caroling or baking that are really about being with your family,” said Stanley. “Love and community are free.”

Methodology

Insurify surveyed 1,006 U.S. residents between 22 and 75 years old about their holiday shopping plans in 2024. Insurify calculated the average value of stolen packages using the midpoint for each dollar range and write-in costs for packages valued at less than $100 or more than $2,000.