‘Above-Normal’ Atlantic Hurricane Season Could Cause Surge in Home Insurance Rates

Scientists predict an “above-normal” 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, slightly less active than the East Coast experienced last year. This year, the U.S. could see 17 named storms, including eight tropical storms, five hurricanes, and four major hurricanes, according to the Colorado State University (CSU) Seasonal Hurricane Forecasting team.

Homeowners in hurricane-prone states already face high home insurance rates. Florida and Louisiana are the two most expensive states for home insurance, and Insurify projects that both will have above-average increases in home insurance costs this year. Texas, Alabama, and Mississippi are also among the most expensive states, according to Insurify’s home insurance report.

As weather events become more frequent, severe, and damaging, the rising cost of home insurance drives up the overall price of homeownership. But homeowners still have many options to make their homes more resilient to hurricane damage.

Key Findings

• The average cost of home insurance in Louisiana rose by 38% in 2024, and Insurify projects another 27% increase this year.

• Seasonal forecasts predict a 51% chance of at least one major hurricane landfall along the U.S. coastline.

• Hurricane Helene in 2024 and Hurricane Ian in 2022, which caused a combined $199 billion in damages, showed that just one storm can cause immense destruction.

• Property risk from hurricanes can raise costs by increasing reinsurance rates and requiring homeowners to purchase additional coverage.

• The homebuying markets most favorable for buyers are mostly in hurricane-prone areas.

Louisiana can expect another year of rising home insurance costs

The national average cost of home insurance will rise by 8% in 2025, according to Insurify’s home insurance report. In Louisiana, however, homeowners could see more than triple that increase.

The state’s average annual premium was $10,964 in 2024. Louisiana’s home insurance rates rose by 38% in 2024, and Insurify projections predict a 27% increase this year. Affordability is also a concern: Louisiana has the third-lowest average household income in the country, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.^[1]

Hurricanes cause more financial damage than any other type of natural disaster nationwide, according to the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI).^[2] That’s especially true in Louisiana, where hurricanes have cost roughly $200 billion to $300 billion since 2000.

Louisiana’s expected annual loss of building value due to hurricanes is $1.3 billion, the fifth-highest behind Florida, Texas, North Carolina, and South Carolina. However, more of its building value is at risk than in any other state except Florida. That kind of risk means higher property insurance premiums.

Environmental conditions favor hurricane activity

CSU anticipates “above-normal activity” for the 2025 hurricane season, predicting a total of 17 named storms, including four major hurricanes, five hurricanes, and eight tropical storms. Predictions from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) closely align with CSU’s forecast.^[3]

“In my 30 years at the National Weather Service, we’ve never had more advanced models and warning systems in place to monitor the weather,” National Weather Service Director Ken Graham said in a release. “This outlook is a call to action: be prepared. Take proactive steps now to make a plan and gather supplies to ensure you’re ready before a storm threatens.”

A warmer-than-normal tropical Atlantic combined with neutral conditions usually means the climate is right for forming and intensifying hurricanes, according to CSU.^[4] Sea surface temperatures are warmer than usual, though not as warm as they were this time last year, according to CSU. La Niña, a period of cooling ocean temperatures, ended in April, and ocean temperatures are now “neutral,” according to NOAA.

However, CSU reports significant uncertainty about what will happen in summer and fall. While CSU predicts a slightly less active season than last year, the forecast reminded coastal residents that “it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them.”

The 10 states with the highest chance of a major hurricane

Florida and Louisiana are the most expensive states for home insurance, and an active 2025 Atlantic hurricane season could spike insurer losses, further driving up premiums.

CSU anticipates an “above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean.” The likelihood of at least one major hurricane making landfall is:

• 51% (19% above average) for the entire U.S. coastline

• 26% (24% above average) for the East Coast, including the Florida Peninsula

• 33% (22% above average) for the Gulf Coast

CSU also anticipates the likelihood of at least one major hurricane, a category three or higher storm with at least 110 mph winds, tracking within 50 miles of coastal states. These are the 10 states with the highest probability.

1. Florida

• Major hurricane probability: 35% (21% above average)

• Named storm probability: 92% (7% above average)

• Projected insurance increase in 2025: 9%

• Projected annual cost by the end of 2025: $15,460

Six of the 10 most expensive cities for home insurance are in Florida, according to Insurify’s home insurance report. A consistently high likelihood of hurricanes drives up premiums, especially along the coast. Insurance fraud and excessive litigation have also contributed to higher rates, according to the Insurance Information Institute (Triple-I).^[5]

2. Texas

• Major hurricane probability: 19% (19% above average)

• Named storm probability: 70% (15% above average)

• Projected insurance increase in 2025: 9%

• Projected annual cost by the end of 2025: $6,522

Massive hurricane-related losses have contributed to rising home insurance premiums in Texas. Hurricane Beryl, which hit Texas hard in 2024, caused around $3.7 billion of insured losses, according to Moody’s RMS Event Response. Inflation affecting construction materials has also driven up the cost of rebuilding, increasing claims costs.

3. Louisiana

• Major hurricane probability: 18% (29% above average)

• Named storm probability: 74% (12% above average)

• Projected insurance increase in 2025: 27%

• Projected annual cost by the end of 2025: $13,937

The risk of significant hurricane damage influences home insurance costs in Louisiana. Insurers paid out more than $23 billion after the 2020 and 2021 hurricane seasons, according to Triple-I.

Last year, state legislators passed a law repealing the “three-year rule,” which had prevented insurers from canceling or non-renewing home insurance policies that had been in effect for more than three years. Now, insurers can non-renew up to 5% of policies per year for any reason and may request approval for non-renewing more than 5% in a year. The new law applies only to home insurance policies that hadn’t been in place for three years before Aug. 1, 2024, but it may significantly affect home insurance availability in high-risk areas.

4. South Carolina

• Major hurricane probability: 10% (25% above average)

• Named storm probability: 66% (16% above average)

• Projected insurance increase in 2025: 4%

• Projected annual cost by the end of 2025: $4,172

Extreme rainfall and coastal storm surges from Atlantic hurricanes have damaged South Carolina over the years. Reinsurance rates have surged in response to insured losses from natural disasters globally, and insurers have raised rates to compensate, according to the South Carolina Department of Insurance.

5. Alabama

• Major hurricane probability: 10% (25% above average)

• Named storm probability: 67% (16% above average)

• Projected insurance increase in 2025: 7%

• Projected annual cost by the end of 2025: $5,831

Alabama faces less severe hurricane risk than other Gulf states, but hurricanes have caused $5 billion to $10 billion of damage since 2020, according to the NCEI. Its coastal counties face elevated risk: Mobile County has “very high” hurricane risk, and Baldwin County has “relatively high” hurricane risk, according to FEMA’s National Risk Index.

6. North Carolina

• Major hurricane probability: 9% (13% above average)

• Named storm probability: 76% (12% above average)

• Projected insurance increase in 2025: 6%

• Projected annual cost by the end of 2025: $3,432

Hurricanes caused 92.9% of North Carolina’s billion-dollar storm costs from 2020 to 2024, according to the NCEI. Before Hurricane Helene, while a few storms did affect the western region, insurers considered the coast a much higher risk. Coastal areas have seen higher home insurance premiums, according to Insurify data.

7. Mississippi

• Major hurricane probability: 9% (13% above average)

• Named storm probability: 62% (17% above average)

• Projected insurance increase in 2025: 8%

• Projected annual cost by the end of 2025: $5,198

Rising home insurance rates are contributing to an affordability crisis in Mississippi. It’s the eighth most expensive state for home insurance but has the lowest household income in the country, according to Insurify and U.S. Census Bureau data. Coastal counties bear a higher hurricane risk, according to FEMA, and pay higher home insurance premiums.

8. Georgia

• Major hurricane probability: 8% (33% above average)

• Named storm probability: 72% (14% above average)

• Projected insurance increase in 2025: 8%

• Projected annual cost by the end of 2025: $3,826

Hurricanes caused Georgia between $10 billion and $20 billion in damage from 2020 to 2024, according to the NCEI. Coastal Chatham County has the highest hurricane risk in the state, according to FEMA. The increased risk of storm damage plus inflation on building materials may lead to higher rates in some areas.

9. Massachusetts

• Major hurricane probability: 4% (33% above average)

• Named storm probability: 40% (21% above average)

• Projected insurance increase in 2025: 2%

• Projected annual cost by the end of 2025: $2,432

Winter storms, not hurricanes, have caused the most damage in Massachusetts in the last five years, according to the NCEI. However, the coast, especially Barnstable County, which includes Cape Cod, has much higher home insurance rates in part due to property risk from hurricanes.

10. New York

• Major hurricane probability: 3% (50% above average)

• Named storm probability: 32% (23% above average)

• Projected insurance increase in 2025: 5%

• Projected annual cost by the end of 2025: $2,855

Most counties in coastal New York have a relatively high risk index for hurricanes, according to FEMA. New York City’s housing and population density can contribute to higher home insurance rates, since one storm can have a greater impact on property. Vulnerable areas on Long Island may have higher rates due to storm surge and wind damage risk.

Last season shows that one major hurricane is destructive enough

Last year, CSU accurately forecasted an “extremely active” hurricane season, only slightly over-estimating the number of named storms, but correctly predicting 11 hurricanes and five major hurricanes.

Three of those five major hurricanes hit the U.S. hard, and two hurricanes caused significant damage. Hurricanes Beryl, Debby, Francine, Helene, and Milton caused a combined $125.3 billion in damage last year, according to the NCEI. Hurricanes Helene and Milton were the two most destructive disasters worldwide in 2024, causing a combined $41 billion just in insured losses, according to Munich Re.

When Hurricane Helene hit the U.S. last September, it spawned 33 tornadoes, caused more than 2,000 landslides, and brought a catastrophic storm surge in parts of Florida’s Big Bend region. The flooding it caused in North Carolina made it the “most devastating natural disaster in western North Carolina’s history,” according to the National Hurricane Center. In Asheville, two rivers broke century-old flooding records, swelling to more than 24 feet above normal. It was the deadliest storm since Hurricane Katrina, directly causing 176 deaths and a total of 250 fatalities.

The 2022 season also showed that even one bad storm is too many. While CSU predicted “above-normal activity,” and it turned out to be “near average,” Hurricane Ian was one of the two major hurricanes that season.

Hurricane Ian was the third-costliest hurricane to hit the U.S. since 1980 and caused around $120 billion of damage, according to the NCEI. Its slow movement and up to 15-foot storm surges made it particularly destructive. Ian dropped up to 27 inches of rainwater in areas unaccustomed to that much precipitation, causing deadly freshwater flooding. The storm destroyed thousands of structures and washed away infrastructure, causing some of the massive insurer losses that contribute to Florida’s high rates.

How hurricanes hit homeowners’ pockets

Shifting climate risk is making certain places less safe and affordable to live. While the sun and heat might make coastal Florida communities attractive, their expensive insurance burden reflects the risk.

Florida is the most expensive state for home insurance, according to Insurify’s home insurance report. The average annual premium is $14,140 for $400,000 of building coverage. Since mortgage lenders require home insurance, Florida homeowners shoulder the rising costs.

More hurricanes have hit Florida than any other state by more than 100 storms, according to FEMA. Florida has the highest percentage of its building value at risk from hurricanes. When climate catastrophes cause expensive insurer losses, companies typically pass those costs on to policyholders.

Home insurance can exclude hurricane damage

A standard home insurance policy may not cover all hurricane damage. Some homeowners may also need flood insurance, and possibly even separate wind insurance, to protect themselves from hurricane damage. 

The average cost of flood insurance is $1,293 per year, according to National Flood Insurance Program data, but rates vary based on risk. Home insurance policies don’t cover coastal or freshwater flooding, but homeowners in high-risk states like Texas, Louisiana, and Georgia may also need additional windstorm protection.

“My grandfather lived in North Carolina and had three separate policies for one property: home insurance, flood insurance he bought through the government, and wind insurance he got through a specialty insurer,” said Mallory Mooney, director of sales and service at Insurify.

Some home insurance policies may exclude wind damage altogether, meaning homeowners have to buy that coverage as a separate policy from a different insurer. Some insurers include wind coverage in a standard home insurance policy but have an individual, often higher deductible for wind damage.

“Your standard deductible might be $1,000, but your wind deductible might be 2% or as high as 10% of your dwelling coverage amount,” Mooney said. “That means you’re basically only insuring a total loss. In most of these situations, it means the homeowner is taking on more and more of the risk.”

Rising reinsurance costs

Hurricane risk also affects reinsurance rates, which can eventually appear in homeowners’ premiums. Reinsurance is insurance for insurance companies and helps insurers share their risk, potentially reducing large claims payouts after losses from catastrophic events.

“Reinsurance acts as a financial safety net, so its pricing directly impacts what consumers pay for coverage,” said Jacob Gee, a digital insurance agent at Insurify. “Higher hurricane risk increases reinsurance rates because reinsurers face greater potential losses. As insurers pay more for reinsurance, they often pass those costs to homeowners through higher premiums.”

Catastrophe reinsurance rates for policies hit by natural disasters increased by up to 15% upon renewal in January 2025, according to Gallagher Re, a cost increase policyholders could see in their rates.^[6]

Beware the buyer’s market

The strongest buyer’s markets are mainly in Florida, with a few in other Gulf Coast states and one in Hawaii, according to Zillow’s Market Heat Index.^[7] But zeroing in on an area without considering what’s behind the lower prices could mean higher costs down the line.

Two of the three strongest buyer’s markets in the U.S. are Florida’s North Port and Cape Coral communities. Hurricane Ian hit both communities hard in 2022. The area is rebuilding, but home prices have continued to fall. Condo values in Cape Coral fell by 14% in the last year, and single-family home values fell by 7.3%, according to Zillow Home Value Index data.

But a mortgage payment isn’t the only cost to consider. The average annual cost of home insurance in Cape Coral is $11,836, according to Insurify data.

Miami and New Orleans are the fourth- and sixth-strongest buyer’s markets, but insurance costs could significantly affect a buyer’s bottom line. Both cities are among the top five most expensive cities for home insurance, according to Insurify’s home insurance report. The average annual cost of home insurance is $22,773 in Miami and $18,067 in New Orleans.

Prepare for the worst, hope for the best

In a November 2024 report, NOAA and other researchers projected an “increase in the variability” of Atlantic hurricane activity primarily linked to changes in wind patterns and ocean temperatures. That means more active and inactive hurricane seasons, and fewer “near-normal” seasons. The report noted that “communities in hurricane-prone areas will need to adapt to seasons that have the possibility of being extremely active,” like in 2005 and 2020.

That likelihood could cause devastating property losses if structures can’t withstand the storms. But certain structural improvements can make homes much more resilient.

“Homeowners in high-risk hurricane areas can lower premiums by reinforcing their homes with hurricane-resistant features, such as impact windows or a stronger roof, installing storm shutters, and elevating the home above flood levels,” Gee said. “Securing outdoor items, trimming trees, and sealing windows and doors can also reduce damage and help protect the home.”

Gee also recommended that homeowners take advantage of every savings opportunity, like comparing quotes before buying, bundling insurance policies, and maintaining a good credit score and a claims-free history.

“Home insurance rates are higher in disaster-prone areas because insurers anticipate paying out more in claims, since hurricanes can cause significant wind and flood damage that require costly repairs,” Mooney said. “Homeowners who invest in features that reduce or prevent damage can lower their insurance rates and possibly avoid losing their home to a hurricane’s destruction.”

Methodology

Insurify data scientists analyzed their real-time database of insurance quotes from partner carriers, as well as aggregated rate filings from Quadrant Information Services, to determine average home insurance premiums and informed cost projections.

Unless otherwise stated, rates in this report represent the average annual cost of an HO-3 insurance policy for homeowners with good credit and zero claims within the past five years, covering a single-family frame house with the following coverage limits: $400,000 dwelling, $25,000 personal property, $30,000 loss of use, $300,000 liability, and a $1,000 deductible.

Insurify gathered Quadrant rates in representative ZIP codes in the 10 largest urban areas in every state. Statewide costs reflect the average rate for homeowners across these ZIP codes.

The 2025 prices reflect rates as of Jan. 1, 2025. To project how home insurance rates will change in 2025, Insurify data scientists looked at the historical relationship between a state’s prior five years of personal home insurance industry-wide loss ratios and how much its average home insurance rates changed the following year. They then projected how much rates will rise or fall in every state in 2025 based on the most up-to-date home insurance loss ratio data.

This report also includes the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season projections from the Colorado State University (CSU) Seasonal Hurricane Forecasting team. CSU uses a sophisticated model that incorporates data from past hurricane seasons from 1979 to 2024, as well as analysis of current wind and sea factors. Those factors include sea surface temperature, sea level pressure, and vertical wind profile. CSU uses NOAA’s Historical Hurricane Tracks data, analyzing all named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes between 1880 and 2020 to predict the likelihood of hurricanes tracking within 50 miles of the continental U.S., East and Gulf coasts, and individual states.

For media inquiries or questions about our study, please contact the author here.