Redistribution of risk
The 2026 hurricane season may see fewer hurricanes thanks to El Niño. But experts caution that El Niño would do nothing to dampen the potential severity of hurricanes that do occur.
“For businesses, the takeaway is simple,” Monarch Weather & Climate Intelligence warns in a recent report about the possibility of El Niño this year. “This is not a reduction in risk, it’s a redistribution of risk.”
“Past El Niño years have still produced major U.S. landfalls. Hurricane Bob (1991), Ian (2022), and Idalia (2023) are reminders that a single storm can define an entire season,” Crystal Egger, president and meteorologist at Monarch Weather & Climate Intelligence, wrote in an email to Insurify. “Lower frequency does not necessarily mean lower impact.”
Even in lower-activity seasons, she said, it takes only one well-timed landfall to drive significant impacts.
| | | Estimated Insured Loss (USD) |
|---|
| 2025 | Melissa | United States | ~$3B+ |
|---|
| 2024 | Milton | United States | $25B–$26B |
|---|
| 2024 | Helene | United States | ~$20B+ |
|---|
| 2023 | Idalia | United States | ~$3B–$5B |
|---|
| 2022 | Ian | United States | $50B–$65B |
|---|
| 2022 | Fiona | Caribbean/Canada | ~$2B–$4B |
|---|
| 2021 | Ida | United States | ~$36B |
|---|
| 2020 | Laura | United States | ~$10B+ |
|---|
| 2020 | Delta | United States | ~$3B |
|---|
| 2019 | Dorian | Bahamas/United States | ~$4B–$6B |
|---|
| 2018 | Michael | United States | ~$7B–$10B |
|---|
| 2018 | Florence | United States | ~$5B–$6B |
|---|
Estimates based on industry sources, including Swiss Re, Munich Re, and Verisk. Ranges reflect preliminary and updated loss estimates.
Still, Colorado State University’s widely cited forecast predicts a below-average season, with 13 named storms, six hurricanes, and two major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher.
But this forecast doesn’t yet fully include the effects of El Niño. Climate scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration now say there’s a 61% chance El Niño will develop by summer.
Some forecasts even suggest that a stronger, or “super,” El Niño could form later this year. That hasn’t happened since 2015, when it was one of the most powerful events on record.
“Although not an official classification, ‘Super El Niño’ refers to an exceptionally strong event, typically defined by tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures at least 2°C (3.6°F) above average, conditions that increase the likelihood of more widespread, intense, and longer-lasting weather impacts across the U.S., including heavier rainfall, flooding, and severe storms,” Egger wrote.
Outlooks suggest this climate pattern could emerge as early as the summer, strengthen through the fall, and reach peak intensity during the winter months, when the pattern’s influence on U.S. weather is typically most pronounced, according to Monarch.
“While it’s often associated with fewer Atlantic hurricanes, El Niño typically shifts storm tracks, increases rainfall in some regions, and amplifies heat and dryness in others. It can also lead to increased tropical activity in the Pacific, where conditions are often more favorable for storm development,” Monarch states. “These competing signals can lead to highly variable conditions from one region to another.”
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