Bracing for ‘Super El Niño’

​Meteorologists usually avoid exaggeration.

They focus on probabilities, model groups, and higher-than-normal rainfall. Instead of making predictions, they give outlooks and add warnings to forecasts that look months ahead.

But recently, their language has become much more dramatic, particularly when discussing the El Niño gathering strength in the Pacific. They’re calling it a “Super El Niño,” a “Godzilla El Niño,” and an “unprecedented event.”

El Niño is a naturally occurring warming of the ocean surface in the central and eastern Pacific. The World Meteorological Organization warned earlier this year that El Niño could cause significant floods, drought, and extreme heat.

Forecasts are becoming even more extraordinary. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicts an 83% chance that this year’s El Niño could surpass every previous one recorded since 1950. The WMO also projects that temperatures in a key Pacific monitoring region could reach 3.7 degrees above normal, beating the previous record of 2.6 degrees set during the 2015-2015 El Niño. NOAA also expects strong to very strong El Niño conditions to persist well into early 2027, possibly setting the stage for an unusually extreme winter, although it's uncertain where the worst storms will hit.

A state of emergency for homeowners

California Gov. Gavin Newsom has already declared a state of emergency, even though El Niño hasn’t officially arrived yet.

For homeowners, businesses, and their insurance companies, the main concern is what will happen when El Niño arrives.

“This is shaping up to be an unusually strong El Niño, which is why you’re hearing the term ‘Super El Niño,’” Crystal Egger, president and meteorologist at Monarch Weather + Climate Intelligence, told Insurify.

But Egger cautions against interpreting a record-strength El Niño as a forecast for catastrophe everywhere.

El Niño, she explained, is about “shifting the odds.” It can make certain weather patterns and risks more likely, but predicting exactly where storms will hit or how much rain or snow each community will get is still difficult.

Shifting odds look different depending on where you live

According to Egger’s data, California and the Southwest face a higher risk of heavy rain, flooding, mudslides, and debris flows in the wake of El Niño. The Southern Plains, Gulf Coast, and Southeast could see wetter-than-normal conditions and increased water damage. Parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast could face heavy precipitation and coastal or inland flooding.

Meanwhile, parts of the Pacific Northwest and northern interior West may face the opposite problem: warmer, drier weather and continued drought.

This means some parts of the country may have to worry about too much water, while others will worry about not getting enough.

El Niño is a recurring climate pattern associated with unusually warm water in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. Changes in those ocean temperatures can alter atmospheric circulation and affect weather thousands of miles away.

This time, the ocean is particularly warm.

Egger said sea-surface temperatures in the affected region are running about 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit above normal.

NOAA’s Sept. 10 ENSO Diagnostic Discussion reported that El Niño had strengthened during the previous month, with sea-surface temperature anomalies exceeding 3 degrees Celsius (37.4 Fahrenheit) in the eastern equatorial Pacific. Subsurface temperatures were also significantly above average.

NOAA’s latest seasonal outlook says an El Niño this strong makes the usual weather effects more likely, but they’re still not definite.

That’s an important qualification.

“The biggest lesson from the historical record is that strong El Niños can produce very significant weather impacts, but they don’t all look the same,” Egger said.

California may face too much of a good thing

California and the Southwest could be among the most closely watched regions this winter.

NOAA’s seasonal outlook favors above-normal precipitation across much of the southern tier of the country. Egger said this elicits worries about heavy rainfall, flooding, mudslides, and debris flows in California and the Southwest.

The risk can be especially acute in areas previously affected by wildfires, as the fires could have removed the vegetation and altered the soil, leaving hillsides less able to absorb water when heavy rain arrives.

For homeowners, this means regular fall tasks like clearing gutters, checking drainage, inspecting roofs, and checking retaining walls become much more important.

It also raises an insurance problem.

Standard homeowners insurance generally covers damage from wind and rain entering a house because of covered storm damage, but it doesn’t cover flooding. Homeowners generally need a separate flood policy through the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) or a private insurer for that protection.

And homeowners shouldn’t assume they’re safe simply because their property isn’t in a high-risk flood zone. Flooding can occur well away from rivers, coastlines, and designated high-risk areas.

Mud creates another potential coverage complication. NFIP policies can cover “mudflow,” generally involving a riverlike flow of liquid and mud across normally dry land. But the federal policy excludes landslides and other forms of earth movement.

The South and East could get wetter, too

Egger said some of the strongest probabilities for above-normal precipitation extend along the eastern Gulf Coast and Southeast coast, including Florida.

The wetter signal may also extend northward.

“That doesn’t mean a constant stream of storms,” Egger said of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. But the pattern could create more opportunities for heavy precipitation and coastal or inland flooding.

For homeowners, repeated storms could cause wind damage, falling trees, roof damage, and wind-driven rain that forces water into structures.

The Northwest may have the opposite problem

The same climate pattern that increases rainfall odds across the southern U.S. can have almost the reverse effect farther north.

El Niño winters are often warmer and drier across portions of the Pacific Northwest and northern interior West. Egger said parts of that region can expect below-normal levels of precipitation this winter.

What homeowners can do before the weather arrives

For homeowners, preparing for the weather ahead depends on where they live.

Experts say homeowners in wetter-risk areas can inspect roofs, clean gutters and drainage systems, trim vulnerable trees, and consult a professional to determine whether their property is susceptible to flooding.

They can also review their insurance before a storm appears in a seven-day forecast.

That’s particularly important for flood insurance, since NFIP policies generally have a 30-day waiting period before coverage takes effect. Buying a policy when a major storm is already approaching may be too late.

Business owners can similarly review commercial property, flood, and business interruption coverage to determine whether their policies address the particular hazards most likely in their region.

Egger’s advice is considerably less dramatic than the “Super” and “Godzilla” labels surrounding this El Niño.

She says to prepare for the risks most likely where you live, but don’t treat a seasonal outlook as a prediction of a specific disaster.

“El Niño doesn’t mean the entire country is going to have a bad winter,” Egger said. “It changes the odds, making certain types of weather more likely in certain parts of the country.”

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