Forget Hurricanes. This Is America’s Fastest-Growing Insurance Threat

When people think about climate catastrophes and subsequent insurance crises, they may think of California wildfires or Florida hurricanes. But the peril that’s now costing insurers the most — and quietly driving up premiums for tens of millions of homeowners in the Midwest and South — is one many people may have never heard of: severe convective storms, or SCSs as meteorologists call them.

Severe convective storms have surpassed tropical cyclones to become the costliest insured peril of the 21st century, according to Aon, one of the world’s largest insurance and reinsurance brokers. Aon’s research shows insured losses stemming from such storms reached $127 billion in 2025, 27% above the long-term average. And this was considered a “below-average” hazard year.

SCSs’ combination of hail, tornadoes, damaging winds, and thunderstorms has generated more than $50 billion in insured losses annually for three straight years.

Hurricanes remain a primary threat and still cause the costliest single disasters. But severe convective storms now strike so frequently and across such a broad range that they’re reshaping home insurance costs from Texas to Nebraska to Illinois.

Middle America hardest hit

Hail-prone states like Nebraska, Kansas, Colorado, Oklahoma, Missouri, and Texas are seeing some of the sharpest insurance pressure in the country despite being at a lower risk for hurricanes and wildfires.

But severe convective storms have become a major driver of premium growth, accounting for 70% of global insured losses in the first half of 2024, according to Swiss Re. Areas that people once considered low-risk are experiencing rising premiums and limited coverage options. “Tornado Alley” is also shifting eastward, with the Southeast and parts of the Midwest now experiencing increased tornado activity.

Home insurance premiums have surged in kind. Since 2021, the national average cost of home insurance has risen by 46%, according to Insurify data. The national average rose nearly 12% in 2025, and Insurify data analysts project another 4% rise by the end of 2026.

Some states have suffered more than others. Minnesota, Iowa, Nebraska, Colorado, Oklahoma, and South Carolina all saw average rates increase 20% in 2025, according to Insurify. And storm activity in Iowa alone has caused at least four different insurers to abandon the state.

The impact of an El Niño year

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has declared 2026 an El Niño year, and weather prognosticators are unsure what to expect in the coming months regarding hurricanes and severe convective storms.

“El Niño tends to suppress Atlantic hurricanes by increasing vertical wind shear, but the relationship with severe convective storms is much less straightforward,” said Crystal Egger, president and meteorologist at Monarch Weather & Climate Intelligence.

El Niño doesn’t necessarily reduce the overall activity of severe thunderstorms, hail, tornadoes, and damaging winds, Egger said. Instead, it shifts atmospheric patterns and storm tracks.

“In fact, El Niño often strengthens the subtropical jet stream across the southern United States, increasing upper-level winds and wind shear that can support more organized severe weather outbreaks, particularly across the Gulf Coast and Southeast,” she said.

So while El Niño might give coastal areas a break from hurricanes this year, severe weather risk is often redistributed to other areas and, in some regions, can actually increase.

Analyzing hail risk

More than 43.5 million U.S. properties face moderate or greater hail risk, according to the Cotality 2026 Severe Convective Storm Report. But while Texas leads in raw exposure, Greater Chicago is actually the most financially exposed metro in the country.

Unlike hurricanes, SCS events are often highly localized and can develop rapidly with little warning — making them extremely hard for insurers to model and price accurately, and for homeowners to prepare for.

And the devastation they create can be unpredictable. On a Tuesday afternoon in June 2023, a cluster of severe thunderstorms tore through central Texas, producing hail that shredded roofs across a wide swath of the region. The storms generated between $7 billion and $10 billion in insured losses — 95% from hail alone. It was one of the most expensive storm events in U.S. history.

And it could have been much worse.

Had the storm tracked just 15 to 20 miles further north, into the denser neighborhoods of Fort Worth, modelers estimate total losses would have reached $30 billion — on par with a major landfalling hurricane.

Hailstorms alone account for 50%–80% of all SCS losses, and a warmer climate is expected to produce more of the largest, most damaging hailstones — with frequency projected to increase 15%–75% depending on climate scenarios.

And experts say the traditional severe convective storm season is expanding, appearing earlier in spring and lasting later into fall. Tornado impacts are also shifting much further east than historical norms, hitting Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, and Ohio.

What’s next: How owners can protect their homes

For homeowners, the lesson is that climate risk is no longer confined to the coasts. From Texas to Nebraska to Illinois, the next insurance shock may arrive not as a named storm but as an ordinary-looking thunderstorm packing golf-ball-sized hail and hurricane-force winds.

Some good news is that severe convective storm losses are often more preventable than hurricane losses because much of the damage comes from roofs, siding, windows, trees, and water intrusion.

While homeowners can’t stop hailstorms or tornadoes, insurance experts say they can take several steps to reduce damage and avoid unpleasant surprises when filing a claim.

• Review your dwelling coverage. Ask your insurer whether your Coverage A dwelling limit still reflects current rebuilding costs.

• Understand your roof coverage. Review your policy and ask how roof claims are handled before a storm hits. Some insurers now use actual cash value settlements for older roofs rather than replacement cost coverage, and homeowners could receive significantly less than the cost of a new roof after a hailstorm.

• Check your deductible. Many homeowners focus on their premiums but overlook their deductibles. Make sure you understand how much you’d pay out of pocket if a hailstorm damaged your roof or a windstorm caused major property damage.

• Consider impact-resistant roofing materials. The Insurance Institute for Business & Home Safety (IBHS) says impact-rated shingles and roofing products can better withstand hail damage. Some insurers also offer discounts for qualifying roof upgrades.

• Protect windows and vulnerable openings. Reinforced garage doors, storm shutters, and impact-resistant windows can reduce wind damage and help prevent rain from entering the home during severe storms.

• Trim trees and remove hazards. Falling limbs are a common source of storm-related claims. Regularly trimming trees and removing dead branches can reduce the risk of damage to roofs, vehicles, and power lines.

• Document your property before storm season. Take photos or videos of your home’s exterior, the roof, and your major possessions. Having a current inventory can speed up the claims process and make it easier to prove losses.

• Shop your insurance before renewal. Severe convective storm losses are affecting insurers differently across the country. Comparing quotes before your policy renews can help you determine whether you’re still getting the best value and coverage for your needs.

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