1. Oklahoma
State Insurance Outlook Score: 100.00
Average annual home insurance premium: $4,962
Projected annual premium by the end of 2026: $5,205 (+4.9%)
Method of choosing insurance commissioner: Election
Oklahoma has an open commissioner’s race this year, as current commissioner Glen Mulready is term-limited. On Nov. 3, Democrat Craig McIntyre will face off against a Republican candidate to be decided in the August primary runoff. This year’s insurance commissioner election is particularly notable because whoever wins will be the first to wield new regulatory authority.
In May, the Oklahoma legislature passed House Bill 3871, changing the state’s regulatory framework from use-and-file to file-and-use, effective in July 2027. Shifting to a file-and-use system grants the insurance commissioner’s office more regulatory power: Insurers will have to submit rate changes 60 days before they take effect, and the commissioner will have the authority to reject excessive rates.[2]
Oklahoma already pays some of the nation’s highest average home insurance premiums, according to Insurify data. Its average cost of home insurance increased by 24% in 2025, and Insurify projects another 5% increase in 2026. Its persistent exposure to severe convective storms, especially tornadoes and hail, has led to skyrocketing premiums. Jackson County, which borders Texas, ranks among the top 50 U.S. counties by HIRI score, according to an Insurify report.
2. California
State Insurance Outlook Score: 85.26
Average annual home insurance premium: $2,455
Projected annual premium by the end of 2026: $2,843 (+15.8%)
Method of choosing insurance commissioner: Election
As the market stabilizes following the 2025 Eaton and Palisades fires, Insurify projects that California could see a 16% increase in home insurance costs by the end of 2026, the largest projected increase of any state.
Still, California’s extremely restrictive regulatory environment has kept average premiums relatively low. For example, despite the wildfire risk, the average annual home insurance premium in California is just $2,455, below the national average of $2,948, Insurify data shows.
The outgoing insurance commissioner, Ricardo Lara, implemented new initiatives to increase coverage availability in high-risk areas. His Sustainable Insurance Strategy permits insurers to use forward-looking catastrophe models for rate-setting in exchange for writing more policies in “wildfire-distressed” areas.[3]
The next insurance commissioner will inherit the complex needs of California’s insurance market. Two Democratic candidates, each with different approaches to the crisis, will face off in the general election: Jane Kim, a former San Francisco supervisor, and Palisades-area State Sen. Ben Allen.
3. Georgia
State Insurance Outlook Score: 83.05
Average annual home insurance premium: $2,879
Projected annual premium by the end of 2026: $3,167 (+10%)
Method of choosing insurance commissioner: Election
Incumbent insurance commissioner John King is running for re-election as a Republican in what the Cook Political Report calls a toss-up race. In November, he’ll face off against Democrat Keisha Sean Waites, a former Georgia state representative.
The next commissioner will play a key role in market oversight and consumer protection as home insurance costs continue rising. The state’s average annual home insurance premium increased 24.2% from 2023 to 2025, and Insurify projects a 10% increase in 2026.
Georgia recently passed a massive insurance bill imposing expanded regulations on insurers to help protect consumers and, among other things, expanding the insurance commissioner’s authority. For example, effective Jan. 1, 2027, the commissioner will be able to increase penalties and factor an insurer’s claims conduct history into rate review decisions. And the insurance commissioner elected in November will be the first to exercise the new authority.
4. Kansas
State Insurance Outlook Score: 79.76
Average annual home insurance premium: $3,311
Projected annual premium by the end of 2026: $3,440 (+3.9%)
Method of choosing insurance commissioner: Election
Kansas homeowners have felt the squeeze as insurance premiums rose 20.6% from 2023 to 2025, according to Insurify data. It’s already among the most expensive states for home insurance, and Insurify projects a 3.9% rate increase by the end of 2026. The state’s climate exposure, particularly to hail and tornadoes, has contributed to higher premiums, and its free-market approach doesn’t seem to be bringing them down.
Vicki Schmidt, the state’s current insurance commissioner, has worked to lower insurers’ costs of doing business in Kansas, reducing compliance costs so consumers aren’t forced to foot the bill. The state passed several bills in April 2025 that eliminated producer appointment renewal fees, reduced the premium tax insurers pay, and gave the commissioner new authority to lower more than 100 statutory fees.[4]
Schmidt is term-limited but is running in the crowded open governor’s race. Two candidates, running with no party opposition, will compete for the commissioner’s seat in November: Republican State Rep. Daniel Hawkins and Democrat Dinah Sykes.
5. Florida
State Insurance Outlook Score: 77.84
Average annual home insurance premium: $8,292
Projected annual premium by the end of 2026: $8,458 (+2%)
Method of choosing insurance commissioner: Appointment
Florida is the most expensive state for home insurance, according to Insurify data. Homeowners pay $8,292 per year on average for coverage — nearly three times the national average — in large part because of hurricane exposure. Monroe County, home to the Florida Keys, has the highest HIRI score in the country, according to Insurify’s analysis.
In January, Florida’s Office of Insurance Regulation announced that the state’s tort reforms, including eliminating one-way attorney fees and restricting assignment of benefits, had led to significant improvements in its insurance market.[5] Policies in force with Citizens Property Insurance, the state’s insurer of last resort, declined to the lowest levels in 14 years, 17 insurers had entered the market, and several filed for rate reductions.
Still, average home insurance costs increased 14% from 2023 to 2025, Insurify data shows, and insurance affordability is a top issue in the crowded Florida governor’s race. Florida is a file-and-use state where the governor appoints the insurance commissioner. Current Gov. Ron DeSantis is term-limited, so 29 candidates (16 Republicans and 13 Democrats) will compete in the Aug. 18 primary. Several candidates list solving the insurance crisis or lowering property insurance rates as a top issue.
6. Nebraska
State Insurance Outlook Score: 74.18
Average annual home insurance premium: $4,028
Projected annual premium by the end of 2026: $4,560 (+13.2%)
Method of choosing insurance commissioner: Appointment
Damage from hail and tornadoes during severe storms has contributed to significant increases in home insurance rates in Nebraska, according to Insurify data. It’s the fourth most expensive state for home insurance and saw a 19.6% increase from 2023 to 2025.
In 2024, insurers paid out $136 for every $100 they collected in premiums, and many subsequently raised rates to reflect that risk.[6] Insurify projects an average increase of 13.2% to $4,560 per year by the end of 2026.
But, while home insurance is becoming a major expense for many Nebraska homeowners, it hasn’t yet become a campaign issue. Nebraska is a file-and-use state with a governor-appointed insurance commissioner.
The incumbent governor, Republican Jim Pillen, will face off against Democrat Lynne Walz for the governor’s seat in November. The state hasn’t approved any major insurance legislation, and in April, the legislature “indefinitely postponed” a bill to curb insurance fraud.[7]
7. Iowa
State Insurance Outlook Score: 72.46
Average annual home insurance premium: $2,802
Projected annual premium by the end of 2026: $2,906 (+3.7%)
Method of choosing insurance commissioner: Appointment
Iowans’ home insurance rates are typically below the national average. But homeowners have still seen significant cost increases over the last few years. Average home insurance costs in Iowa increased by 54.3% from 2023 to 2025, largely due to the region’s increased severe storm exposure.
The state has been taking steps to reduce costs and protect consumers in recent years. In 2024, the legislature voted to increase the non-renewal notice period from 30 days to 60 days, and in 2025, it passed a bill designed to reduce contractor fraud after disasters.[8]
The legislature is currently considering two bills that would expedite the claims process, clarify how insurers can calculate losses, and regulate the use of aerial imagery in loss assessments.
Insurance affordability doesn’t appear to be a campaign issue in the open Iowa governor race, which the Cook Political Report rates as a “toss-up.” Democrat Rob Sand will take on Republican Zach Lahn in the November general election.
8. Colorado
State Insurance Outlook Score: 70.71
Average annual home insurance premium: $3,996
Projected annual premium by the end of 2026: $4,164 (+4.2%)
Method of choosing insurance commissioner: Appointment
Though insurance affordability hasn’t emerged as a major campaign issue in Colorado’s open gubernatorial race, home insurance costs have become an expensive component of homeownership in parts of the state.
The average cost of home insurance in Colorado has increased 54.6% from 2023 to 2025, Insurify data shows. The state’s growing climate exposure, especially from hailstorms, strong winds, and wildfires, is at least partly to blame for the increase.
Colorado is actively taking steps to support homeowners. In 2025, the legislature passed a bill regulating insurers’ use of wildfire or catastrophe risk modeling to ensure policyholders receive disclosures and related discounts. The law takes effect in July.
The state also just enacted a bill creating the Strengthen Colorado Homes Enterprise, which levies a 0.5% fee on home insurance premiums to fund grants helping homeowners pay for impact-resistant roof upgrades.[9] By Jan. 1, 2027, home insurers will have to demonstrate that they’re using any savings from resilient roof installations to give policyholders discounts or reduced premiums.
9. Minnesota
State Insurance Outlook Score: 68.01
Average annual home insurance premium: $3,530
Projected annual premium by the end of 2026: $3,654 (+3.5%)
Method of choosing insurance commissioner: Appointment
The average cost of home insurance in Minnesota has increased significantly in recent years: up 63.7% from 2023 to 2025, according to Insurify data.
Despite home insurance becoming a growing expense in Minnesota, insurance isn’t a top issue in the open governor’s race, and there’s been little legislative activity about home insurance in recent years. Minnesota is a file-and-use state, so the governor-appointed commissioner has limited regulatory power over premium changes.
In 2025, the Minnesota Legislature created the Task Force on Homeowners and Commercial Property Insurance to examine insurance affordability and potential solutions. The task force returned its recommendations in February. Among other things, it recommended funding the Strengthen Minnesota Homes Program, updating building codes, and enacting tort reform.[10]
10. Arizona
State Insurance Outlook Score: 60.65
Average annual home insurance premium: $2,104
Projected annual premium by the end of 2026: $2,142 (+1.8%)
Method of choosing insurance commissioner: Appointment
The average cost of home insurance in Arizona increased by 29.2% from 2023 to 2025, but homeowners still pay rates below the national average, Insurify data show. Wildfire risk has been driving up premiums and making it harder for some homeowners to find coverage.
In 2024, Tucson homeowners reported facing rate hikes and non-renewals due to wildfire risk, and a 2025 University of Arizona study confirmed a “strong correlation between recent wildfire activity and non-renewals in certain areas of the state.”[11] [12]
In late 2024, the Arizona insurance and forestry departments convened the Resiliency and Mitigation Council to investigate the affordability and availability of home insurance in at-risk areas, as well as possible risk mitigation strategies. The report found that no single mitigation measure is enough to improve insurability and significantly reduce fire risk to structures, but a continual, systematic approach could make a difference.[13]
Arizona is a use-and-file state, making competition the most powerful market regulator. The governor-appointed insurance commissioner has little power to prevent rate hikes. Arizona has a gubernatorial election in November, and, while insurance affordability has yet to emerge as a campaign issue, the next governor may decide how to respond to the state’s changing risk landscape.
Where else insurance affordability could be a midterm issue
Though only four states are holding elections for insurance commissioner this year, 32 states with appointed commissioners are holding gubernatorial elections. Among them is Nevada, which will decide a “toss-up” race in November.
The average cost of home insurance in Nevada has increased by 18.9% from 2023 to 2025, according to Insurify data, but rates remain well below the national average, at $1,672 per year. But growing wildfire risk has pushed legislators to authorize a unique approach.
Through the end of 2029, insurers can exclude wildfire coverage from standard homeowners policies and offer it as a stand-alone policy or an add-on.[14] The state also approved the Regulatory Experimentation Program for Insurance Product Innovation, a kind of regulatory sandbox that allows insurers to test non-standard policy structures.
The next governor could continue this experimental approach or adopt a different approach to delivering premium relief in Nevada’s high-risk areas. However, neither the incumbent candidate, Gov. Joe Lombardo, nor Democratic challenger Aaron Ford mentions home insurance affordability on their campaign sites.
Illinois, a use-and-file state with a governor-appointed commissioner, also has a gubernatorial election in November. From 2023 to 2025, the state saw a 47.5% increase in the average annual cost of home insurance, hitting $3,380 by the end of last year, Insurify data shows.
In May, the state passed legislation giving the Illinois Department of Insurance the authority to review and reject “excessive, inadequate, or unfairly discriminatory” rates and requiring insurers to provide 60 days’ notice before instituting rate increases of 10% or more.[15] The governor called on the state legislature to take action following the 27% increase that State Farm implemented statewide in July 2025. The change is effective July 1, 2027.[16]
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